Fauzi still most popular candidate

Another survey result has placed Governor Fauzi Bowo as the most popular candidate for the upcoming gubernatorial election.

The incumbent was popular among 51.52 percent of respondents in a poll conducted by the Strategic Development and Policy Study Center (Puskaptis).

Fadel Muhammad, who was sacked his post as maritime affairs and fisheries minister post during a reshuffle last year, was the second most popular figure for the gubernatorial seat with 33.38 percent.

The poll also found that television host-turned-politician Tantowi Yahya was the most popular candidate for deputy governor with 38.97 percent. Triwisaksana, chairman of the Jakarta branch of the Islam-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), was second in the same category with 24.3 percent.

Puskaptis director Husin Yazid said that the survey was conducted from Dec. 26, 2011, to Jan. 10, involving 1,250 respondents that were randomly sampled, citing a 2.8 percent margin of error.

The findings confirmed those of several previous surveys.

In October last year, in a joint poll by two organizations, Median Survei Nasional and The Future Institute, Fauzi was the most recognizable candidate for the election, winning 97.5 percent of respondents’ votes. In the latest survey by Puskaptis, only 93.14 percent of respondents said they knew of him.

A survey conducted in May in the same year by the Jakarta branch of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) predicted that Fauzi would be the strongest candidate in the election.

Husin said that, according to the survey result and with only less
than six months to the voting day, Fauzi had the best chance of winning the election.

“Learning from other regional elections in the past few years across the country, those with more than a 60 percent recognition rate are more likely to win the race.”

Husin said that with so little time left, other candidates would have difficulty in chasing Fauzi’s popularity. “They can resort to extreme campaigning measures, paying for TV appearance slots for example; but it would be very costly,” he said.

Separately, Yuniarto Widjaja, a political analyst from Charta Politika, said that it was too early to say if the incumbent would win another term. “Being widely known is not a guarantee of winning the election. Everyone can be famous. Top corruptors are definitely widely known,” Yuniarto told The Jakarta Post, adding that the electability rate would be more accurate in predicting the election result.

The political analyst said that a number of unpublished surveys held by various institutions showed that the race was still open for any candidate.

“If the election was held today, none of the candidates would win more than 30 percent of available votes, which guarantee a win or second round ticket,” Yuniarto said.

“Even independent candidates can still win this election,” he added.

The list of people tipped to run in the July gubernatorial election has kept on growing.

The Democratic Party, the largest party at City Council with 32 of 94 seats, has said it was considering backing party branch chairman Nachrowi Ramli and incumbent Fauzi.

The PKS, the second largest with 18 council seats, said it would nominate Triwisaksana.

The Golkar Party, with only seven seats in the council, has been considering several people as its nominee for Jakarta’s top job, including incumbent Fauzi Bowo, who has not announced re-election plans, Prya Ramadani, Tantowi Yahya and Aziz Samsudin.

Independent teammates Faisal Basri and Biem Benjamin have been optimistic about their chances of winning, claiming to have collected signatures and copies of identity cards from more than 900,000 citizens to support their candidacy.