Fauzi to face Jokowi in runoff: Surveys

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Governor Fauzi Bowo and Surakarta Mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo are the two candidates most likely to square off in a second round of voting, according to surveys released on Friday.

One survey, published by the Indonesia Survey Network (JSI), said Fauzi would capture 49.6 percent of the vote if the election were held today, followed by Jokowi at 15.8 percent.

“It will be hard for the other contenders to catch up with these two with such a wide gap,” JSI executive director Widdi Aswindi said of Friday.

According to the survey, none of the other four campaigns would capture more than 10 percent of the vote.

Hidayat Nurwahid came in third at 6.4 percent in the JSI’s survey, followed by Alex Noerdin at 4.3 percent, and the independent campaigns of Faisal Basri and Hendardji Soepandji at 1.9 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

A large number of respondents declined to back a candidate: 21.1 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided or declined to answer.

JSI conducted the survey between June 28 to July 2, involving 1,200 respondents in a multistage random sample using direct interviews and questionnaires.

The survey had a margin of error of 3.5 percent, the JSI said.

Another survey, released on Friday by Soegeng Sarjadi School of Government (SSSG), also predicted that the upcoming election would go into a second round.

The SSSG survey, however said that support between the two front runners was more even, with Fauzi backed by 26.6 percent and Jokowi by 25.5 percent.

“We are expecting this gubernatorial election to enter a second round,” SSSG executive director Fadjroel Rachman said on Friday.

Undecided voters comprised 23 percent of respondents, while 9.1 percent of respondents said that saying they did not know who they would back or did not answer the question.

The SSSG conducted its survey between June 25 and July 5, interviewing 440 registered voters selected at random from the city’s five municipalities.

The results of the JSI’s and the SSSG’s surveys were consistent with previous polls that placed Fauzi and Jokowi at the head of the pack of gubernatorial contenders.

A survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) in May said that 43.3 percent of its survey respondents would vote for Fauzi and 20.9 percent would back Jokowi.

A survey published by Indo Barometer in May said that Fauzi was the most-electable candidate, receiving a rating of 49.8, followed by Jokowi in second place at 16.4 percent.

The Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU Jakarta) has allocated Rp 258 billion (US$30.21 million) for the election, anticipating a second round of voting.

Unlike other regions, the capital requires that candidates secure 50 percent of vote to be declared the winner.

Yunarto Wijaya, a political observer from the Jakarta-based political think tank Charta Politika, said that there would likely be a runoff election.

“None of the surveys has shown candidate winning more than 50 percent votes,” Yunarto said.

“I have also observed a considerable number of swing voters — more than 10 percent, which is higher than the threshold for stable predictions,” Yunarto said.

Effendi Ghazali, a political communications expert from the University of Indonesia (UI), disagreed, saying that Fauzi could win the election in just one round if the middle class failed to turn out on Election Day.

“There’s a possibility that the middle class will be out of town during the election. They will most likely grab the holiday opportunity presented by the mixture of school holiday and the election holiday to go on vacation,” Effendisaid.

According to reports from Kompas daily, the middle-class comprises 50.3 percent of Jakarta’s population.

Election Day for Jakarta’s second direct gubernatorial election has been scheduled for July 11, with 6.9 million people listed on the voter roll. (han)