The KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose sharply to 155.6 in April, up 3.7 points from the previous month. The index now stands a massive 16 points higher compared to a year ago in April 2012 when it registered 139.6.

April's rise was driven primarily by increasing confidence in regards to the purchasing of major household items as well as increasing confidence in the Indonesian economy over the next five years. In April, 65 percent of Indonesians said 'now is a good time to buy' major household items, a new record high. Only 31 percent, down by 6 points, said 'now is a bad time to buy' major household items. This is the lowest level since April 2005.

Consumer views of the Indonesian economy over the long-term remains buoyant, despite all the talk of impending fuel price hikes. This is good news as it signals an acceptance of the inevitable. April saw 91 percent of the population expecting Indonesia to have 'good times' economically over the next five years compared to only 8 percent who expected 'bad times' economically. The positive score went up 3 points, the negative down by 3 as well. Looking at the short-term, 80 percent expect Indonesia to have 'good times' financially during the next twelve months compared to 20 percent who say the country will
have 'bad times', similar to the month before.

In terms of personal finances now 69 percent ' unchanged - expect that their families will be 'better off' financially this time next year. This compares overwhelmingly against only 3% - also unchanged - who expect to be 'worse off' financially. Now 44 percent, down 1 point, say their family is 'better off' financially compared to a year ago. In contrast, only 9 percent, down 2 points, say their families are 'worse off'. But the real truth behind the ups and downs of the overall index in recent months lies in the difference in people's moods for different reasons at different points in time. Call it the urban-rural divide, if you wish.

KADIN Chairman Suryo Sulisto commented on the latest results, 'This is a large country. More than half the population lives in rural Indonesia. About 15 percent of the Gross Domestic Product is contributed by the agriculture sector. Excessive rain in December and March had an immediate impact on the sentiments of rural folk, bringing down the KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index. Despite the deluge, we now know that rice and corn harvests are set to achieve record yields and so the mood is buoyant once again. The confidence of the rural cousins matched those of their urban counterparts in April, bringing the index back to near-record levels.' Now compare these findings, the reasons for the ups and downs, to other indices available for the world to see. We know that Bank Indonesia is responsible for keeping the economy on even keel, by pulling the right levers at the right time. Recent history shows that the brains at the central bank have been doing a good job of protecting consumers. But we would not instinctively regard them as the leading practitioners of consumer research. Their index is tailored to their needs, conducted in less than 20 cities and towns, with no voices from rural Indonesia. To remind you, more than half of all citizens reside in rural areas. Yet, the BI index is widely regarded as the 'official' measure of Indonesian consumer confidence.

Then there is the 'global' variant, put out by at least one well-known researcher at least once a year. It immediately makes it to the front pages of leading newspapers, every time, including this newspaper. When you look at the fine print that most reporters ignore, you realize that the 30,000-odd respondents from around the world were measured 'online'. It's time to remind you that less than 32 percent of Indonesians have ever accessed the Internet. The comparable number in India, sub-Saharan Africa and much of Latin America is even lower. What is the relevance of such a study being conducted 'globally' and reported locally, you may well ask. If you never have, perhaps you should. That is because it is obvious that too many editors are brand conscious, too many journalists are merely stenographers. I can understand how purveyors of luxury goods around the world are able to price a US$100 product with a 500 percent mark-up. I sort of understand how the badge on the bonnet makes all the difference to the price-tag of a car. I used to be in the business of building brands. In many ways, I still am. But I have learned to distinguish between fact and fiction, by always looking under the rocks. You would do well to pick up the habit because the brand conscious members of the press corps are failing to do their job.

Researchers are not above blame either. The conflicting results of local political polls presented to and blindly reported by the media is worthy of scorn as well. They should all be producing similar results if they were conducted in the same month, as indeed they do in more mature democracies. And it is not only local researchers who produce dubious results. The widely reported 'global study' of Muslims around the world and their opinions on sharia law conducted by the respected Pew Center led to factually incorrect headlines everywhere, including Indonesia. We will reveal the real truth to media this week, based on over 26,000 interviews. Let us see who is really interested. Watch this space.

The KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating for April was based on 2,049 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 21 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of April 2013.

 The writer can be contacted at debnath.guharoy@roymorgan.com

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