O

ne of today's imposing political scenes is the emergence of non-Javanese political figures, such as Jusuf Kalla, Surya Paloh, Aburizal Bakrie and Hatta Rajasa, after over three decades of hiatus. During the preceding 32-year New Order administration, some non-Javanese figures did rise to prominence, but merely as technocrats, without political influence.

The emergence of non-Javanese figures today, therefore, takes our memory back to the 1945-1957 democracy era when many non-Javanese national leaders dominated the political scene.

Can these non-Javanese leaders reach the top position of national leadership? This will heavily depend on whether national leaders of Javanese roots are ready to be in positions lower than those of non-Javanese ones. For the time being, we must accept the fact that notable Javanese figures who, because of ethnic sentiment, possess greater opportunity to reach to the top.

At the moment we find potential Javanese national top leader aspirants in Prabowo Subianto, Wiranto, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Jakarta Governor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo. Undeniably, recent surveys reveal that Prabowo of the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party emerges as the most popular leader for the top national leadership.

Wiranto of the People's Conscience (Hanura) Party, on the other hand, has the potential to be more popular in the near future than he is today. But this will only happen on condition that 'Hary effect' performs well. As a media mogul, Hary Tanoesoedibjo, who only recently joined the Party, has the final word in placing Wiranto into the orbit of public attention through wide and excessive publication via his media chain of TV stations, and digital and print media.

Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is constantly taken into account as a potential national leader. Her ability to reap 20 million ballots in the 2009 presidential election is estimated to remain unchanged due to its strong support from loyalists of Sukarno, her father and the country's founding president. Should Megawati ' herself a president from 2001-2004 ' run again next year, she has a great opportunity to recapture the country's top executive post.

Jokowi, a potential dark horse in the race, has the benefit of his 'simplicity look' and his success during his terms as mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, had reverberated to the power center in Jakarta. His victory in the 2012 Jakarta gubernatorial election relied heavily on the Jakartans' spell on his 'simplicity look' rather than on the political parties that supported him.

It is obvious that the race to the country's top executive post remains a tall order as the way to the top will be accompanied by massive polarization and repolarization of social forces that will mark the dynamics of the 2014 presidential election. While awaiting the rise of Wiranto's popularity, Probowo deserves to receive a bit more attention. Since the 2009 presidential election, Prabowo built his image as, like Hugo Chaves from Venezeula, a populist and anti-global capitalist leader. Being the running mate of Megawati in the 2009 election is a huge political investment for him as his image continues to be conserved in the collective minds of the people.

However, Probowo's 'political headway' would be challenged by urban movement of intellectuals and 'enlightened circles', including a section in the military elites, who would assiduously try to stem his political upsurge.

The root of this 'urban movement' is the 1996-1998 kidnapping of pro-democracy activists. It is publicly known that Prabowo was the commander of the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus) when some of its members were involved in the incident.

As long as this intellectual resentment evolves within the limited urban educated circles, theoretically Probowo's political stride would go unchecked. Beside their small number, these urban intellectual circles possess no effective means to project their enlightened consciousness into the people's minds. The problem is that, their persuasive force is penetrative enough into the national elites circles. It is in this context that Megawati and Jokowi are at the forefront.

I'm tempted to say that for the sake of stemming Prabowo's political course, these intellectual circles would try to push Jokowi ahead. Although his leadership in leading Jakarta is yet put to the test, his popularity would skyrocket once he gets his credential as a presidential candidate. The pushing factor of his popularity is the perception that Jokowi is the true embodiment of Marhaenism ' Sukarno's formulated socio-economic developmental ideas. Far from artificial appearance, Jokowi is really an archetype of a Marhaenist.

This scenerio, however, wouldn't be a smooth hatch as its success will depend on whether both Megawati and her daughter Puan Maharani are ready to give this golden chance to Jokowi. The urban middle class, therefore, would organize alternative script: persuading Megawati herself to go into the political battle.

Viewing that Megawati's strength today is not as big as during the 2004 general elections, the urban intellectuals would look for a strong and agile running mate for the 2014 presidential election. It is in this context that the aforementioned non-Javanese figures are the potential candidates. The urban intellectuals, thus, would not be hesitant to see the following pairs: Megawati-Jusuf Kalla, Megawati-Surya Paloh, Megawati-Aburizal Bakrie and Megawati-Hatta Rajasa, as alternatives.

However, there is something to be thoroughly pondered. Like Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the 2004 presidential election, Prabowo is 'a rising star' today. He possesses leeway to choose his pairs, such as Dahlan Iskan, Mahfud MD or even Jokowi himself.

The author is a political-economic observer and a founder of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of Business Ethics (LSPEU) Indonesia).