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Commentary: Jokowi and his Ides of March
How ironic
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H
ow ironic. Thirty-four years to the day that Indonesia's most revered vice president and joint proclamator with Sukarno ' Mohammad Hatta ' passed away, the job opening as Jokowi's running mate and potentially the nation's number two suddenly became available.
The historical coincidence and political irony of Jokowi's nomination on March 15 runs deep for the Sukarno family, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the nation. Whether or not anyone was aware of it or it was simply a fluke, the timing of the announcement of the man expected to be the PDI-P's first elected president has evocative echoes with Sukarno's fall.
'Beware the Ides of March', read a line from the Shakespearean tragedy Julius Caesar before the Roman Emperor was assassinated on March 15, 44 BC.
Like Caesar, the Ides of March should have been an ill omen for Sukarno. For Jokowi, it was an illustrious dawn.
Indonesia's first president sealed his fate by signing the March 11 Order (Supersemar) in 1966, paving the rise of then Lt. Gen. Soeharto.
On March 11, 2014, Jokowi announced he would campaign to help boost the PDI-P's share of the vote to above 27 percent in the coming legislative election. In an apparent slip of the tongue, Jokowi for the first time also responded to questions from journalists on his economic vision 'if' he were president.
On March 12, 1967, the Provisional People's Consultative Assembly (MPRS) ended Sukarno's rule and installed Soeharto as acting president.
That day 47 years later, Megawati Soekarnoputri took Jokowi to visit Sukarno's tomb in Blitar, East Java.
Just to add a further intriguing touch, construction of the iconic MPR/DPR building where Jokowi, if elected, will be sworn in as president in October began on March 8, 1965.
A president by the name of Jokowi is not a forgone conclusion, but it is hard to conclude otherwise.
With 30 percent of voters under the age of 30, of whom nearly 40 percent are first-time voters, this presidential election is not about the present.
It is about the past versus the future. Between those in their 60s aspiring to power, and a candidate born in the 1960s.
Yet this icon of the future would do well to read the signs and heed the past as he moves forward.
History teaches us that Indonesian political dynamics are all about balance and moderation.
In leadership, Jokowi can reflect on the duumvirate (dwitunggal) style that has served Indonesia best. A partnership akin to the Sukarno-Hatta, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Jusuf Kalla mode of leadership.
The former as solidarity maker, the latter as pragmatic executor. Opposites who complement each other perfectly.
A format which has also served Jokowi well in the past. Having capable deputies ' FX Hadi Rudyatmo in Surakarta, and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama in Jakarta ' to execute policy gave Jokowi the luxury of inducing and mobilizing change through direct interaction.
The question now is who has the fiat to decide Jokowi's running mate? Is it Megawati or Jokowi?
Will the selection be a consequence of political negotiation or will the PDI-P be insular and choose a party ideologue?
Jusuf Kalla is an ideal name on everybody's shortlist.
But for the PDI-P it is a bit like 'grabbing a tiger by the tail'. Would the PDI-P take the chance of relinquishing such power to a man who represents a party which has long been the PDI-P's main political rival and who could also potentially outshine Jokowi in his executive duties?
Whatever Kalla's chances, he provides a template for the kind of running mate Jokowi should seek.
First, he is a dynamic executor who can cut through bureaucratic torpor and understands the needs of the private sector.
Jokowi will quickly find himself overwhelmed by the scale of challenges at the national level if he is not partnered by executive competence.
Second, Kalla is a civilian. More than a decade-and-a-half after reformasi the nation still seems stuck in a security-oriented approach. A mind-set of politically coddling the military because only a military man in the executive seat can keep the military in check.
Such a premise neglects the evolution of Indonesian society and those 21 million-plus first-time voters who see the military as what it should be: A defense force, not a political entity.
The myth that the 400,000 or so personnel in the ranks of the military are more competent at running the country than the remaining 240 million Indonesians should be dispensed with once and for all.
Third, Kalla is a pluralist who has the ability to both accommodate and keep in check conservative religious elements in the political spectrum. A PDI-P nationalist-pluralist platform would serve this diverse nation well. But an overly secular shift would alienate the conservative voice in a country that is 88 percent Muslim.
Jokowi is no orthodox santri in his views of Islam. He clearly resonates a more profane abangan type of syncretic interpretation of religion, culture and politics.
Without adequate representation center-right conservatives are pushed further afield, potentially radicalizing an already active fundamentalist base.
The Ides of March brought good tidings for Jokowi. In hindsight, his candidacy, perhaps even presidential victory, could be the easy part. Now comes the most difficult part.
A fact well understood by Sukarno himself: 'My struggle was much easier because all I had to do was repel the colonizers, but your struggle will be more difficult because you are struggling against your own people.'
