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News Analysis: Coalitions and transactional politics for a House divided
There were no tangible winners in Wednesdayâs election
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here were no tangible winners in Wednesday's election. Ironically, the one that finished at the top should be the most disappointed.
The official tally of the election may still be a month away. But quick counts provide a strong enough indication as to the final result.
The outcome was another lesson in the inherently fine balance that characterizes the history of Indonesian politics. The established nationalist parties have topped the polls as expected. Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), survivors of the Soeharto era, remain firmly reliant on their loyal constituencies.
Despite having the most unsellable patron as its chairman, Golkar finished with a respectable turnout equaling its returns in the 2009 election. The party's network continues to prove resourceful as masters in the art of politics.
At present, the party stands pretty as its guile and cunning will allow it to hold sway in forming the needed coalitions.
The PDI-P may be putting on a brave face this morning, but it knows that the result was far from expectation. The Jokowi effect had little effect in the legislative election. Currently hovering at between 19 and 20 percent based on quick counts, its returns were better than in the 2009 election, but not much different than in the 2004 election when it gained 18.5 percent of the vote.
The dominance it sought, with a target of 27 percent, is nowhere near achieved. Now the house of Megawati Soekarnoputri will have to engage in the art of politics that it has never been adept at: lobbying and coalition building.
The party may have a runaway popular presidential candidate in Jakarta Governor Jokowi, but the PDI-P will have to lower its expectations as it seeks a coalition partner to boost its numbers to meet the presidential nomination threshold.
Just a fortnight ago, the PDI-P and Jokowi seemed imperious as the most sought-after political commodities. Now, its political opponents are rubbing their hands in glee at the chinks within the party machinery. The 'anything but Jokowi' rally will relish the challenge ahead.
Many had expected Gerindra Party to fare well, but the poor showing of the PDI-P in emerging tallies
has led to Gerindra exceeding initial prospects.
Indonesian voters have shown that as an alternative to apathy they are willing to pin hopes on new parties with 'fresh' ambitions.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party are two examples.
The Democratic Party burst onto the scene on the coattails of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's popularity in 2004, winning 7.4 percent of the vote. Five years later, it tripled its gains.
Gerindra emerged five years ago with just 4.4 percent. Now it has likely more than doubled its winnings.
With about a third of eligible voters below 30 years of age, there is little memory of the past. If people are not reminded of whom its chairman is or of his track record and ambitions, then Gerindra's presidential nominee could gain further traction as a serious challenger to Jokowi.
Its impressive outcome in the election, its willingness to potentially be more accommodating to coalition partners and its financial resources potentially makes the party more genial to form early alliances with as the nation races toward the July presidential election. Unlike the PDI-P, it reached out to other parties ahead of the election.
The growing collegial relationship with the Democratic Party and its closeness with the Islamic-based United Development Party (PPP) have been on clear display.
Islamic politics remain an important voice in Indonesian politics. Traditionally, Islamic parties receive an average of one-third of votes.
This year once again, the five Islamic parties won an estimated combined 31 percent of the vote. What is interesting though has been the shift back to the innate nature of Muslims to vote for the PPP or the National Awakening Party (PKB).
The PPP had been on a downward spiral since the 1999 election when it won 10.7 percent, to just over 5 percent in 2009. Even with the fallout of the corruption scandals dogging the PKS, it has been able to woo voters back and arrest the slide with estimated returns now at above 6.6 percent.
Similarly, the PKB is set to rekindle the glory it enjoyed during the days of Abdurrahman Wahid when it was the biggest Islamic party. In 1999, it won 12.6 percent of the vote. But support for the party slowly dwindled, and by 2009 it was even smaller than the PPP. Quick counts indicate that the PKB will stand tall with over 9.1 percent of the vote.
Ultimately, what this all means is that the House of Representatives will be even more prone to transactional politics, with no strong leading party and smaller segments and blocks in the legislature. Unless a truly strong coalition can be held together and the president truly exploits his position in the bully pulpit, it will be possible to hold various laws and government policies to ransom at the House.
The proportional representation system that characterizes electoral politics here ensures that there are no absolute winners in this type of election. And once again we have learned that in Indonesian elections, you don't have to finish number one to be a winner.
