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Republican gains could aid Obama's Asia trade pact
Big Republican gains in the U
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ig Republican gains in the U.S. midterm elections would be a blow to much of President Barack Obama's agenda, but one stymied item on his to-do list might get a fresh chance to move forward: trade. That could breathe life into Asia-Pacific trade talks essential to his efforts to deepen engagement in the region.
Obama needs special authority, known as fast track, to negotiate trade deals that Congress can accept or reject, but cannot change. It would smooth the way for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is under discussion with 11 nations, and help advance separate negotiations with the 28-member European Union.
Fast-track legislation was introduced in January but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, would not allow a vote. Many Democrats fear that opening markets to countries with lower wages and standards will cost American jobs. Republicans tend to be more supportive, seeing more trade as benefiting the economy.
With Republicans favored to take control of the Senate and expand their House majority, trade could become a rare point of agreement between a Republican Congress and the White House.
Yet obstacles would remain.
Many Republicans would hesitate to a Democratic president make progress on his agenda. Among Democrats, there's widespread opposition in the House to the Asian pact. Opposition is less strong in the Senate, but it only takes a few lawmakers to use procedural tactics and try to block the deal.
With or without fast track, there's no guarantee that the TPP nations can reach an agreement. The main players, the U.S. and Japan, appear at loggerheads over access to Japan's heavily protected agriculture market.
When TPP trade ministers met in Australia in late October, they announced significant progress in negotiations but no deal ahead of the Nov. 10-11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where leaders of the 12 nations will want to signal the end is in sight.
Having a clear definition of exactly what's in the pact would help trade legislation in Washington, said Jeffrey Schott, an international trade specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
"The large majority of the Republican party would support this and would be lobbied hard by the business community to get the legislation through," Schott said. "This is not just a symbolic issue. This is a dollars and cents issue."
The ambitious talks seek to cut tariffs and set broader rules on issues such as intellectual property and state-owned enterprises, and apply to countries that account for nearly 40 percent of the world economy and one-third of global trade. Besides the U.S. and Japan, the participants are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
The administration views the TPP as strategically important for U.S. outreach to the Asia-Pacific. The main U.S. business advocacy group also views it as an opportunity to expand exports to the region's fast-growing economies.
Obama is under fire for his handling of foreign policy and he stands little chance of attaining other legislative goals on immigration and raising the minimum wage in a Republican-controlled Congress. Success on trade could burnish his presidency during his final years in office.
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Follow Matthew Pennington on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mattpenn_99 (**)
