T

he political crunch this past week was a crisis waiting to happen. Only the politically naïve were ignorant of its impending prospect, yet its rapidity and escalation caught everyone, not least President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo, by surprise.

Crises almost always occur abruptly, but the nastiest ones are products of escalation and miscalculation.

A multilayer crisis laced by vested political interests with deep roots going back to 2009 when the inter-institutional conflict between the police and the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) first peaked.

Retaliation, idealism, ambition and power are all ingredients in this explosive concoction.

Last week Jokowi played safe by making a stand without taking one as he framed the crisis surrounding the nomination of Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan as National Police chief in a formal legal setting.

In a game of tit-for-tat, the '€œformal-legal'€ track was then exploited by '€˜dark forces'€™ within the police to weaken the KPK as the institution that stands in the way of Budi'€™s appointment.

Elements of civil society in response raised the narrative of anti-corruption in their defense of the KPK.

The rapid series of developments, especially in the last four days, have made for interesting brushstrokes on a canvas from a contradictory palette. But the bigger picture reveals a far more interesting portrait of politics than the persecution of an institution or individual.

What is at stake in this game of political chess isn'€™t really a case of undermining the KPK or even vanquishing an opponent, it is all about demarcating the power structures evolving under the new government. The measure of political influence in the power of the presidency.

Since being sworn in as president nearly 100 days ago, it has been the objective of Jokowi to consolidate his power base. He rules under a minority coalition comprised of parties whose allegiance is to their respective party chiefs rather than the President.

Hence he began his presidency fighting a war on two fronts: in the House of Representatives and shoring up support internally within his coalition.

The formation of his Cabinet and immediate palace staff has been filled with intrigue and negotiation.

Add to that the role of non-party elements, such as civil society groups, who have been a founding force in Jokowi'€™s political rise and who are now considered a growing threat by traditional political elements.

This clash of interests seems to be what has really been at play this past week.

Following a somewhat disappointing Cabinet selection, and a questionable choice for attorney general, if Budi were sworn in as police chief without opposition then the perception, by some, that Jokowi remains merely a party functionary will have been confirmed.

Yet on the other hand Jokowi cannot be seen as blatantly contradicting the wishes of his alliance members since he has not fully consolidated his own power.

Nothing reveals the mettle of a leader and the nature of his political support than when responding to a major crisis.

During this crisis it has become clear that some of Jokowi'€™s subordinates'€™ loyalties seem to lie elsewhere.

The role of Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Tedjo Edhy Purdijatno, with his abrasive support for the Budi nomination, has led some to question whether he is really serving the best interests of the President or some other party with a vested interest.

It has also emerged that the recommendation for top cop from the National Police Commission (Kompolnas) '€” headed by Tedjo '€” submitted to Jokowi, which contained Budi'€™s name was considered an initial draft.

Then there is Insp. Gen. Budi Waseso, the chief of detectives at the National Police who apparently acted on his own accord to escalate this crisis.

How the President responds to these individuals will provide an insight into the developing political dynamic. Should one be quietly sidelined and the other removed it would be a sign of a fight back from the President.

As much of a sign of resistance should Budi Gunawan suddenly find himself officially summoned and held at the KPK offices.

But Jokowi too needs to balance his fight back carefully by delicately balancing decisions, which will involve value tradeoffs '€” various political groups have needs and perspectives that still need to be satisfied.

This crisis represents both the most serious challenge to his authority as president, and at the same time an opportunity to consolidate his power.

And while the public is frustrated by yet another political impasse, this crisis can be a force for positive change if the President is shrewd enough to handle it constructively.