T

hree months ago, Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo was elected the seventh president on Indonesia largely on the grounds of hope, as he represented the antithesis to all the presidential contenders to have emerged since the democratic transition. He is seen as a good guy, despite lacking in political capital, and a complete newcomer on the national scene.

It was, therefore, hoped that he could show determination and leadership in the top job.

What President Jokowi needs to achieve now is to gain public confidence in his ability to perform. Yes, it is about the transition from hope to confidence. To some extent, unfortunately, he has disappointed his own supporters. The balance sheet of gaining confidence on economic grounds is mixed, but the overall confidence game is subjected to politics, where he is quickly losing out.

His firm move to scrap the popular but wasteful fuel subsidy was an achievement; something that his predecessors could not do. The subsidy removal has strong economic legitimacy, as it distorts economic incentives and was made indiscriminately, thus disproportionately affecting the poor.

But the success of the move lies in the political aspect, as this bold decision required credibility in the public eye in order to gain its trust.

If the reason was to create fiscal space to finance Jokowi'€™s campaign promises, questions arise: Have other alternative financing sources been maximally explored? The superrich have long cooked their books and avoided taxes. The previous administrations were not good at using national, natural wealth for the people'€™s welfare, as is mandated by the Constitution.

And, more importantly, what has the President done to ensure that available funds in the budget are not continuously stolen by corrupt bureaucrats and politicians? On these grounds, initial hope in Jokowi is eroding. Of course, not much can be achieved just in three months. But what is needed is bold direction.

A mixed record is also found among the ministries in charge of real economic sectors.

The appointment of the Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Susi Pudjiastuti has been applauded. With a clean track record and successful business experience, she is a typical Jokowi choice, with common sense and a get-things-done approach. Despite the controversy created by sinking boats caught fishing illegally, she has gained public confidence in safeguarding national wealth in Indonesia'€™s waters from illegal fishing.

Jokowi is right with his bold plan to significantly invest in agricultural infrastructure to achieve rice self-sufficiency three years from now, followed by corn and soybeans. This is beyond rhetoric. Probably because the issue of food security is politically so important, he publicly threatened to fire Agricultural Minister Amran Sulaiman if the goal is not achieved.

This, however, only concerns the supply-side of rice self-sufficiency, which should be accompanied by the demand-side initiatives. Per capita rice consumption in Indonesia is among the world'€™s highest. Indonesians like eating rice as a result of a misguided campaign since former president Soeharto'€™s time, resulting in more and more Indonesians with bulging stomachs. The supply-side policy has to be complemented with food diversification on the demand-side.

The other ministers of economic portfolios are those in charge of industry and trade who deal with nationalism discourses. Our Constitution mandates economic nationalism. National ownership was one of the flagship campaign messages made by Jokowi'€™s rival in last year'€™s presidential election.

From a purely economic point of view, although ownership is secondary to generating tax revenues, providing employment, modernizing the economy and, after all, creating growth; it is politically crucial for Indonesians. On this important issue, Jokowi is not gaining the public confidence, either. The problem is not about economic technicalities, but more about politics. State-Owned Enterprises Minister Rini Soemarno, who is responsible for managing Rp 4.5 quadrillion (US$ 355.5 billion) worth of assets generating an annual net profit of Rp 154 trillion, is the personal choice of Jokowi'€™s political patron, Megawati Soekarnoputri. This creates a deficit of credibility for the key post safeguarding a big pocket of national treasure. The minister'€™s plan to sell the ministry'€™s 22-floor office building on the grounds of narrow efficiency was a political blunder.

However, there was hope when the government appointed the respected economist, Faisal Basri, who has a strong anti-corruption record, to lead a team to solve rampant governance problems in the oil and gas sector.

However, the team is only tasked with producing recommendations, while execution is another matter. Suspicion arises as Jokowi'€™s other political patron, Surya Paloh, has indicated his interest in the profitable and secluded oil and gas business.

The next thing on the list was the government'€™s decision to extend the export license for the gold and copper mining giant Freeport. This only lowers public confidence in the toughness of the government when it comes to dealing with the more important issue of Freeport'€™s long-term mining concession in Papua that will expire soon.

The government needs to skillfully manage the issue of economic nationalism economically, and more importantly, politically. Jokowi needs to be independent from the political and business interests around him; something that he was applauded for when he was a major and a governor.

In summary, the economic balance sheet of the new presidency so far needs to be seen from the perspective of transforming hope into confidence. This is not about numbers, but about direction.

During the first three months of his first term, US President Barack Obama gained public confidence by fighting in congress for a stimulus package to manage the 2008 global financial crisis and a healthcare reform package.

On the political level, it is increasingly clear that Jokowi is losing public confidence, even in the eyes of his own supporters. This refers to the current conflict between the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and the National Police, as well as his appointments for certain Cabinet positions and other key posts. The problem lies in the fact that the President is arrested by the political establishment around him.

And, the economic arena is tethered to the political problem, too. In democracy, after all, its politics, stupid!

The only way forward for Jokowi is to be tough on the political establishment that sponsored his presidential bid. In addition to possibly assembling a new alliance in the legislature, he needs to show high-quality leadership and listen more to the volunteers who played a critical role in winning him the presidency.

The volunteers are Jokowi'€™s true and trusted allies, not the political establishment represented by Megawati and NasDem Party chief Surya Paloh. It is not too late for Jokowi, as the jury is still out. But expectations are still high and patience is running low.