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Uncertainties ahead in the Taiwan presidency race
Taiwan is slated to hold its next presidential election on January 16, 2016
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Taiwan is slated to hold its next presidential election on January 16, 2016.
Ever watchful of political developments in Taiwan, the Chinese government through an official newspaper recently drew attention to two sets of heavyweights that are likely to face off in the 2016 election.
In the pan-blue camp stand Kuomintang (KMT) chairman Eric Chu, Legislative Yuan speaker Wang Jin-pyng and People First Party chairman James Soong.
The pan-green camp has Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen , Tainan mayor Lai Ching-te and Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chu.
In both cases, the first two politicians are perceived as potential candidates, while the third is regarded as each camp's premier of choice.
The Beijing mouthpiece is correct in its assessment of Taiwan's political landscape and picks the right candidates.
However, there are uncertainties on the road ahead, and this explains why the DDP's Tsai is so far the only person who has registered for the presidential run.
On the KMT side, Chu and Wang have yet to reach an agreement on who is to run as the front man and who is to run for vice president.
And before a consensus is reached, the chances of Soong jumping onboard as premier are slim. Unless the conditions are right, Soong said it is not in his interests 'to sink with the KMT like the Titanic.'
KMT chairman Chu, who also serves as mayor of New Taipei City, is facing a dilemma. Having promised he would serve out his full term as mayor ' which ends in 2018 ' announcing a presidential run does not seem right without good reasons.
Last November's national election debacle greatly undermined the KMT's morale, and some believe the party has little chance in 2016.
Nevertheless, Chu probably does not have the luxury of choice. The KMT will push those candidates with the best shot to the frontline. The announcing of his presidential bid is just a matter of time.
As for Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang, a man known for his eminent skills in settling different interests, his announcement is all but guaranteed.
At the age of 74, Wang probably does not fancy the idea of waiting a few more years to fight 'the last battle' in his political career.
Chu and Wang are shrewd and calculating politicians. They are simply waiting for the opportune moment to announce their bids. PFP chairman Soong can then be expected to jump on board.
A former elite member of the KMT, Soong demonstrated superior governorship when serving as the now-defunct governor of Taiwan province between 1994 and 1998. The prospect of his return to government service appeals to many on the island.
Only a united Chu, Wang and Soong will stand a chance against an opposition DPP that has garnered much support since president Ma Ying-jeou's approval ratings went spiraling down a few years ago.
However, the DPP is not without its problems. Chairwoman Tsai has yet to produce a cross-strait policy that is likely to result in peace and stability. It is a key issue for both Beijing and Washington.
Tsai is scheduled to visit the US in the summer and, according to a media source, unless Tsai can offer a clearer cross-strait policy, she will be forbidden from meeting officials above a certain level in Washington.
Tsai also has to deal with the controversial issue of whether to grant amnesty to former president Chen Shui-bian, who was sentenced to life imprisonment on bribery charges. The chairwoman has been ducking the question, but it will continue to haunt her in the lead-up to the election.(***)
