N

early eight months into his leadership, President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo has hinted at a plan to revamp his Cabinet. His plan is obviously a result of a combination of his own will as national leader and also that of the general public.

In general, the President and the public have been dissatisfied with the performances of a number of ministers. While the public has clearly pinpointed a number of ministers and demanded their dismissal due to their controversial statements or policies, the President has so far refrained from mentioning names and only cited necessary indicators for a Cabinet reshuffle.

The President has also declined to mention the deadline for the planned reshuffle although it is expected to occur after the post-Ramadhan Idul Fitri celebration.

Regarding the indicators hinted at by the President, speculation is rife that a number of ministers are under serious threat of dismissal due to poor performance. About half of the 34-member Cabinet are reported to have been marked with '€œred ink'€ in relation to their underperformance.

In his capacity as president and chief of the Cabinet, Jokowi has the constitutional liberty of making the necessary '€œadjustments'€ to the Cabinet line-up to meet his own expectations and those of the public.

He has the luxury of dismissing any underperforming ministers and replacing them. The President can also rotate Cabinet posts if he considers that some of the ministers could perform better in other roles.

However, President Jokowi has to consider a number of factors prior to making up his mind on the planned reshuffle. The bad news is the fact that these factors would very likely only satisfy members of the coalition of party supporters of the ruling government, but on the other hand disappoint the public who expect the Cabinet '€“ and certainly the government in general '€“ to be professional and to meet their expectations.

First, the President should carefully conduct the reshuffle so that it does not rock the boat '€“ in the sense that the reshuffle should create a better and more conducive environment in the Cabinet and be expected to improve its performance.

The reshuffle, especially when it involves the dismissal of Cabinet ministers and their replacement with new members, must not mean that the Cabinet is back to square one, as the new ministers will find difficulty not only in adjusting themselves to their respective portfolios, but also in catching up with fellow ministers who have been in the Cabinet since the beginning of its term last October.

Second, any candidates picked by the President should certainly be of better capacity and capability than the dismissed ministers. Otherwise, what is the point of a Cabinet reshuffle if the new ministers are qualitatively the same or even worse than those they replace?

Third, the reshuffle should also not create more troubles for the President, who has yet to resolve existing problems. It has become a public secret that the current Cabinet members are dominated by officials affiliated to the political parties that formed the coalition of party supporters of Jokowi'€™s presidential election bid and then his eventual government.

Other Cabinet posts, even if they are not held by party officials, are substantially filled by people recommended by the members of the coalition of party supporters.

Here, the President should carefully consider his plan; as a failure to convince the respective party supporters, whose officials or recommended persons might be among those included in the reshuffle, will cause the President more harm than good.

Jokowi will then have to replace the dismissed ministers with ones from the respective party supporters or those recommended by them. Failing to do so, the President will very likely have to endure a severe blow and potential threat to his presidency as it could contribute to significantly increasing the vote count of the opposition or anti-government camps.

As a reminder, the current government of President Jokowi and its coalition is mathematically toothless in the House of Representatives '€” the country'€™s national legislature and the determinant factor in the government'€™s sustainability, due to its constitutional capacity to initiate an impeachment against the ruling government.

In the unfavourable comparative structure between the government'€™s coalition of parties and the opposition, 208 House seats are controlled by the government coalition and the 352 seats by the opposition.

Should Jokowi disappoint any members of the coalition of party supporters by failing to meet their preferences in the planned reshuffle, the government coalition'€™s strength will be significantly reduced and that of the opposition camp will be strengthened, which will eventually increase both its ammunition and the chances of an impeachment.

The President has less than a month '€” if he sticks to his '€œafter Idul Fitri'€ schedule '€” before he announces the Cabinet reshuffle. He still has time to reconsider his plan, particularly in regard to the individual Cabinet ministers that the President considers need to be replaced.

Despite his inability to completely free himself from the influence and pressure of members of coalition party supporters, Jokowi should at least be able to persuade them to provide capable and accountable candidates for the Cabinet posts that the President has decided need to be reshuffled.