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illions of poor people face hunger and poverty this year and the next because of drought and erratic rain as global temperatures reach record levels and a powerful El Niño, the climatic phenomenon that develops in the tropical Pacific and can bring extreme weather to several regions, begins.

El Niño doesn'€™t necessarily cause serious climatic disruption '€” there are many other influences on climate patterns '€” but it does increase the odds, especially in Southern Africa, Central America and parts of Asia and the Pacific.

What makes this year'€™s El Niño especially dangerous is that it is happening on top of rising global temperatures. Last year'€™s record high temperatures '€” it was the warmest year on record '€” seemed to create an El Niño effect, although an actual El Niño did not develop.

Harvest seasons in Southern Africa and Central America behaved as if one was occurring; rains were late and erratic and there were serious crop failures in several countries.

So if the current El Niño does have the anticipated impact, the rainfall will be low again in these regions which will mean a second successive year of crop failure. That would bring even greater food insecurity for millions of people.

The countries currently suffering most, and likely to be worst hit again, include Zimbabwe '€” where 1.5 million people are currently starving '€” and Malawi, where some two million people were hit by extensive floods and by drought in 2014/15, and now by rising prices for the staple crop maize.

The lean season will start as early as January for most and continue well into April.

Prevention measures being taken by the government and international agencies like Oxfam include cash-for-work, water for people and animals, fodder and livestock vaccination.

As a result the situation is not as bad as it might have been by now.

National governments and international donors, including the UK, need to step up support for such prevention and preparation programs so that they can be scaled up. At the moment it seems that the implications of the chronic drought and El Niño have not been fully appreciated.  

In Ethiopia, Southern Africa and Central America Oxfam staff report that donors seem reluctant to fund prevention work, saying they are over-stretched and have other or higher-profile emergencies to deal with.

However, relatively small amounts of money spent now are likely to be much more cost-effective than waiting until the only option is to provide emergency relief.   

The El Niño is likely to mean that 2015 will be even hotter than 2014, and that 2016 will be unusually hot too.

In light of the way in which climate change is already increasing temperature and rainfall extremes, preparedness, prevention and social protection will become ever more crucial to enable communities across the world to adapt.

John Magrath
Program Researcher
Oxfam GB, London