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Jakarta Post

Courting China

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s government has made the right decision to continue efforts to deepen and widen economic relations with China, especially in coping with the global economic uncertainty and rising tide of protectionism

The Jakarta Post
Tue, January 24, 2017

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Courting China

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resident Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s government has made the right decision to continue efforts to deepen and widen economic relations with China, especially in coping with the global economic uncertainty and rising tide of protectionism.

As the world’s second-largest economy, albeit with a growth rate declining to below 7 percent from about 10 percent a few years ago, there is still great potential for both countries to strengthen their economic ties for their mutual benefit. China, already Indonesia’s largest trading partner and the largest source of foreign investment, also has great potential to become the largest source of tourists as an increasing number of China’s 1.3 billion people rise into the middle-class consumer group.

Indonesia also can benefit greatly by linking its manufacturers with industries in China, which has now become a huge global production or assembly center, thereby becoming part of the global supply chain.

But we should not be too preoccupied with the seemingly massive flow of Chinese workers into the country, but should instead look at the full perspective of the benefits from deeper and wider economic relationships.

For example, the China Development Bank in late 2015 committed US$3 billion in 10-year loans to three state banks — Mandiri, BNI and BRI— with an annual interest rate of only 2.8 percent above the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), mostly for financing infrastructure projects like power generation, light-rail transport and airport expansion. In addition, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, one of the world’s largest banks, has pledged $30 billion in loan commitments to the infrastructure sector.

Of course such long-term loans come with certain conditions, namely the loans should be extended to Indonesian state companies that tie up with Chinese companies in building infrastructure, and about 30 percent of the total loans should be denominated in yuan.

We see no problem with the loans as long as the engineering, procurement and construction work are all supervised by independent, capable engineering consultants and advisers. Moreover, the renminbi has become the fifth most-widely used currency in the world after the American dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen.

Certainly, the construction of many infrastructure projects funded by the huge loans will initially bring in a large number of workers from China as the contractors are tied to a fixed schedule for project completion. Likewise, a large number of workers from China will be needed to implement the investment projects, but the bulk of the workers will return as soon as the projects come on stream.

Bilateral trade expanded to almost $46 billion last year from $40 billion in 2010, although now with a widening deficit for Indonesia. But this, we think, is only a temporary phenomenon as Indonesia has yet to improve its economic efficiency.

If imports from China cause severe disruption in the domestic market, Indonesia could still resort to such things, allowed by the Geneva-based World Trade Organization as a safeguard, as anti-dumping measures and countervailing actions.

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