T

he Philippines military may one day win the battle against the insurgents linked to the Islamic State (IS) movement in the country’s southern city of Marawi, but a recent study suggests that an end to the battle there would still bring new problems elsewhere.

The latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) warns that the battle for Marawi could be just the beginning of a wider problem of terrorism in the region and may lead to greater cooperation among Southeast Asian extremists, including the pro-IS cells in Indonesia and Malaysia.

The 29-page report, entitled “Marawi, the ‘East Asia Wilayah’ and Indonesia,” suggested the conflict in Marawi may lead to more violent attacks in the region’s cities, including in neighboring Indonesia, where pro-IS cells have deep ties with Mindanao militants that dated back decades.

“The risks won’t end when the military declares victory,” Jakarta-based IPAC director and prominent terrorism expert Sidney Jones said on Friday.

“Indonesia and Malaysia will face new threats in the form of returning fighters from Mindanao and the Philippines will have a host of smaller dispersed cells with the capacity for both violence and indoctrination,” Jones said.

For two months, the Philippines military has been trying to push IS fighters out of Marawi after militants launched an offensive and took over the city on May 23 in an attempt to establish a caliphate in the Philippines.

In the urban warfare in Marawi, nearly 100 soldiers and police officers have reportedly died and more than 400 militants have been killed.

According to the IPAC report, IS-linked militants operating in Marawi received direct funding from the main body of IS in Syria, represented by Khatibah Nusantara, which is led by Indonesian militant Bahrumsyah and his associate Abu Walid, who has strong ties to Mindanao.

The funding, the report claimed, is sent through Mahmud Ahmad, a Malaysian professor who reportedly sits in the inner circle of the Marawi command structure.

Mahmud also allegedly arranged the IS funding for Marawi to be laundered through Indonesia, using operatives of Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD).

From January to March 2017, the IPAC report says, Mahmud received at least US$55,000 sent from the Middle East to Indonesia with the help of Achmad Supriyanto alias Damar, a JAD member living in Banten, who later wired the money to the Philippines using Western Union, the American financial services firm.

Philippines armed forces commander said IS channeled as much as $600,000 to Mahmud, but he provided no details.

Two main IS networks in Indonesia, JAD and a little known group called al-Hawariyun whose leader Abu Nusaibah was arrested in November last year for trying to incite violence during a conservative Muslim rally, have reportedly sent at least 20 fighters to the Marawi front.

“The links through Mahmud to Bahrumsyah in Syria mean that a few of these Marawi veterans, if and when they return, could not only train Indonesia’s extremists to a higher level of competence, but become the instruments for the implementation of a regional IS strategy,” Jones added.

JAD is believed to be responsible for a number of terrorist attacks and plots in the recent years, including an attack at the Kampung Melayu bus station last May, where explosions killed three police officers and two apparent suicide bombers.

Since 2015, JAD had been sending its men to training camps run by Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of a splinter cell of the Abu Sayyaf group who is acknowledged by IS as the leader of its Southeast Asia wing, in Basilan province in the southern Philippines.

Hapilon, with the Maute brothers Omarkhayam and Abdullah, plotted the Marawi siege, which IPAC believes has inspired young extremists from around the region to want to join.

The ability of pro-IS fighters to occupy Marawi and hold the Philippine armed forces at bay has inspired violence elsewhere in the region. In Indonesia, some of the attacks against police in May and June were linked to Marawi.

“Returning fighters from Marawi could give [JAD] a deadly dose of leadership, skills and unity; they could also help break down some of the barriers between JAD and some of the pro-IS groups in Bahrumsyah’s network,” the report said.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) deputy for international affairs, Brig. Gen. Hamidin, acknowledged the possible danger posed by returnees from Marawi. However, he said he was confident that security officials would remain vigilant to handle the threats.

The BNPT, as the leading sector to handle deradicalization, will continue to cooperate with law enforcers working on the front lines to make arrests, identify alleged terrorists and investigate their cells and terrorist group links, Hamidin said.