The provinces of West Java and East Java will likely see close races between their strongest candidate pairs while a predictable result is expected in Central Java, a survey has revealed.

Five days ahead of voting day, Jakarta-based pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released a survey on the electability rating of gubernatorial candidates in three key provinces on Java Island. Analysts say that the results reflect the national political landscape.

The poll, released on Friday, surveyed 820 respondents in the three provinces between May 22 and June 1.

According to the survey, the leading candidate pairs in West Java and East Java are ahead by a margin of less than 10 percent.

Of the respondents in West Java, 43.1 percent said they would vote for Bandung Mayor Ridwan Kamil and his running mate Tasikmalaya Regent Uu Ruzhanul Ulam.

Closely trailing the Ridwan-Uu ticket by a margin of 9 percent is the pair of incumbent West Java Deputy Governor Deddy Mizwar and Purwakarta Regent Dedi Mulyadi. They secured 34.1 of the vote in the survey.

Meanwhile, in East Java, leading by a margin of 7.7 percent, candidate pair Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Dardak took 48.5 of the vote, overtaking the Saifullah “Gus Ipul” Yusuf-Puti Guntur Soekarno ticket, which garnered 40.8 percent.

“There is a possibility of a tight race in both West Java and East Java,” SMRC director Sirojuddin Abbas said on Friday. “The performance of the campaign teams and the ability to maintain support until voting day will be a determinant factor.”

Java is Indonesia’s most populous island with around 160 million people, accounting for 70 percent of the total population and around 60 percent of eligible voters in the upcoming 2019 general election.

Analysts say the results of the gubernatorial elections in Java, particularly in the three key provinces, might be an indicator of the results of next year’s presidential election.

According to the survey, Ridwan and Uu, backed by Hanura, the United Development Party (PPP), NasDem and the National Awakening Party (PKB), have a high electability rating due to, among other reasons, the pair’s likability among respondents.

Most respondents who voted for the pair are educated with a middle to high income, while those who favored the Deddy-Dedi pair have a lower education and low-income background.

The Deddy-Dedi pair, backed by the Democratic Party and Golkar, scored higher in Bekasi, Karawang and Purwakarta, one of six electoral districts in West Java, while the remaining five were held by the Ridwan-Uu pair, the survey said.

Other candidate pairs in the West Java race, namely Tubagus Hasanuddin-Anton Charliyan and Sudrajat-Ahmad Syaikhu, secured 6.5 and 7.9 percent of the vote, respectively.

Meanwhile, in East Java, the closest race between Khofifah-Emil and Gus Ipul-Puti would be in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, where both pairs garnered 45 percent of the vote. In the remaining 10 electoral districts in the province, Khofifah controlled eight while Gus Ipul led in two.

Both Khofifah and Gus Ipul are notable figures of Nahdlatul Ulama, the nation’s largest Muslim organization, while Puti Guntur Soekarno is the granddaughter of Indonesia’s founding father Sukarno and niece of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the patron of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The Khofifah-Emil pair is backed by the Democratic Party, Golkar, NasDem, the PPP, Hanura and the National Mandate Party (PAN), while Gus Ipul and Puti are backed by the PDI-P, the PKB, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Gerindra.

In Central Java, a PDI-P stronghold, a staggering 70.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for the incumbent Ganjar Pranowo-Taj Yasin Maimoen pair, who are backed by the PDI-P, the Democratic Party, NasDem, Golkar and the PPP.

Former energy and mineral resources minister Sudirman Said and his running mate Ida Fauziyah, whose candidacy is backed by Gerindra, the PKS, PAN and the PKB, trail far behind Ganjar and Taj with only 22.6 percent of the vote.

“It’s relatively hard for Sudirman to catch up with Ganjar [..] even if Ganjar suffered a drop in his electability rating. It probably won’t significantly affect [the outcome],” Sirojuddin said.

However, there is a possibility that voters switch sides, with 30 percent of respondents in West Java, 34 percent in Central Java and 29 percent in East Java saying they might vote for other pairs, Sirojuddin said.

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