P

alu provides prima facie evidence, not only of the devastating power that nature can unleash, but also of the deficiencies inherent in Indonesia’s spatial development patterns.

Historically, agriculture and the rural economy have provided sustenance for urban dwellers, produced raw materials to support industrialization, earned foreign exchange through commodity exports to procure capital goods, and sent surplus manpower to labor in the factories.

Wages and staple prices were deliberately kept low in line with economic thinkers such as Karl Marx, Walt W. Rostow and Simon Kuznets who legitimized urban bias by attaching paramount importance to manufacturing and urban settlement. Over time, the application of both socialist and free market policies in Indonesia resulted in coastal cities swelling as the ranks of the population increased and megacities evolved into bastions of trade, manufacture and services.

In Indonesia’s case, colonial exploitation was superimposed upon feudal extraction, further impoverishing the rural populace. Coastal settlements continued to grow while agricultural towns stagnated. The rural-urban divide was further exacerbated by the processing of imported staples far from production centers. Investors found it cheaper to locate their factories on lands closer to the megacities rather than in the hinterland where land was more abundant. Such pattern of coastal urbanization gained impetus from decades of a cheap fuel policy that inspired urban sprawl.

Farmers, and especially the near-landless, have been short shrifted all along. So what is wrong with a pattern of economic development that concentrates economic activity in flashy, urban megacities? Most of Indonesia’s wealth and economic production is now concentrated in these coastal cities anyway — so what is the problem, one might ask? The answer, simply put, is vulnerability. If climate scientists are correct, then this house of cards is bound to collapse.

The polar ice caps are melting and, as they do, billions of liters of water are pouring into the ocean each year.  Secondly, as the temperature becomes warmer, seawater expands, taking up more space in the ocean basin and causing sea levels to rise. Third, major cities are already sinking due, primarily, to excessive groundwater extraction, construction loads, consolidation of alluvium soil and geotectonic subsidence.

In fact, Jakarta has sunk, according to scientists who monitor this from Singapore, by 1.6 meters during the past eight years. New studies suggest that rising sea levels are accelerating, and scientists now predict that it will rise another 65 centimeters by 2100 — enough to cause significant problems for most coastal cities. Maybe a small part of Jakarta could be protected from the rising sea level by then, but most of Indonesia certainly will not be. Dumping 1 m of water inland in Indonesia’s cities would mean that much of urban Indonesia, as we now know it, would be permanently submerged.

Building dams and protective reefs is unlikely to be much of a solution — they would be prohibitively expensive for the government to even contemplate, what with over 12,000 islands to protect.

 Perhaps three relatively low-cost options might be worth exploring to help reduce the vulnerability of Indonesia’s megacities:

(i) Encourage in-land urbanization by relocating the nation’s administrative capital inland, by providing support to inland cities to expand, and by developing relocation schemes for people or businesses who want to move.

(ii) Use zoning policies to discourage further development — of any kind — near the coasts.

(iii) Start to put into effect long-term transmigration programs that will help people shift from vulnerable-to-sea-rise places to less densely populated inland parts of the country. If in the 1960s and 1970s, transmigration was used to help combat rural poverty, now the threat of rising sea levels has added another compelling rationale for it.

Clearly, the government has to first regain the trust of the people if it wants its climate change warnings to be heeded. That might prove to be not so easy, since successive governments have been warning of climate change, whilst encouraging coastal megacity urbanization that puts large segments of the population, and much of the economy, at great risk. Indonesia’s central and local governments have actively encouraged and enabled coastal urbanization over the last few decades.

Secondly, despite the oft-repeated warnings with regard to the risks arising from climate change, the country’s forests continue to be depleted; more palm oil is planted; new coal-fired power plants come on stream each month; and the number of smoke-spewing vehicles plying the streets increases relentlessly. Watching this happen, any reasonable person would ask — is the government actually serious about addressing the risks of climate change?

Although Indonesia’s megacities are sinking, the rising sea level and extreme weather are increasing in both severity and frequency we don’t think any politician really wants to seriously address the devastation that Indonesia’s cities face. They might be hoping that the Paris Accord, and the goodwill of nations, will somehow keep the sea level from rising or not inflict as much damage. They could also be hoping that environmental scientists will discover some ingenious technology that somehow manages to preserve the polar ice caps and keep the earth’s temperatures from increasing.  

Finally, they could also say: “Well that’s not really going to happen for a long time to come, it’s more important to cope with the increasingly frequent disasters that are here already.”  

Given the government’s meager resources — thanks to a public policy of barely taxing the rich — they might thus opt to address what is absolutely required at the moment, leaving future generations to fend for themselves. Moreover, if they were to be candid regarding the medium-term risks facing Indonesia’s coastal cities, which are clearly increasing with each passing day, then this would not be a good advertisement for foreign investors who still prefer to set up shop in Indonesia’s coastal cities.

We need not despair, however. Megacities will continue to grow, though some may, well (...) become submerged. Indonesia shall carry on, one way or another. Let us hope that some of the enlightened leaders manage to learn from past mistakes and lead the country in the right direction, before it is too late.
_________________________