“We will need to [stay alert] when entering 2021, as there is a risk of a surge in cases,” Dicky Budiman, an epidemiologist at Griffith University in Australia, told kompas.com on Saturday. 

Dicky predicted the surge in cases based on various indicators, such as mortality rates, hospital occupancy rates and active cases, and noted that Indonesia was currently in a crisis.

While he did not mention specific possible triggers of a rise in cases, Dicky urged the government to intensively carry out the so-called 3T program of testing, tracing and treatment (isolation), while the public was encouraged to implement the 3M health protocol, which covers mask wearing, handwashing and physical distancing.

Indonesia recorded increases of between 69 and 93 percent in its daily and weekly averages of new COVID-19 cases 10 to 14 days after the long Idul Fitri holiday in May. 

Similarly, 10 to 14 days after the long Independence Day weekend from Aug. 20 to 23, Indonesia saw a surge of between 58 and 118 percent in daily and weekly averages of new COVID-19 cases.

The national COVID-19 task force’s data and technology division head, Dewi Nur Aisyah, said people’s negligence of health precautions during long holidays could cause a domino effect of COVID-19 crisis. 

The first impact, Dewi said, was the significant surge of COVID-19 daily cases, and that could affect the capacity of healthcare facilities. 

Dewi noted the risk of intensive care units (ICU) at hospitals filling up. 

Moreover, Dewi also said that healthcare workers would also feel the impact of the surge of cases as they would be required to work harder to attend to many patients at the same time. 

The crisis would also drive an increase in fatality rates. 

However, Dewi said several things could increase the fatality rates, including the capacity of health services and the infected patient’s health conditions. 

Read also: People neglect health protocols during holiday: Report

The spokesperson of the national COVID-19 task force, Wiku Adisasmito, also warned of the possible impacts from the Christmas and New Year holidays, particularly in light of the new coronavirus strain discovered in the United Kingdom.

Wiku explained that a mutated coronavirus might enter Indonesia through transmission from outside or within the country. Therefore, he advised people not to travel during the long holiday.

“When we travel, it creates opportunities for the virus to be transmitted,” he said, “Moreover, this new virus has a higher infection potential. 

In response to the new virus variant, the Indonesian government has drawn up a list of preventive measures following a new coronavirus variant that was discovered in the United Kingdom, says task force chief Doni Monardo. 

On Thursday, Doni said that Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan had conducted a ministerial meeting in the previous week to anticipate the new strain of the coronavirus, which has reportedly been detected in Australia and Singapore.

In the meeting, Luhut also invited epidemiologists to provide the government with insight and feedback regarding COVID-19 mitigation in the country. 

The task force, Doni went on to say, had also attempted to reduce the chances of coronavirus transmission in the country by limiting entry for foreigners and Indonesians who departed from countries that had detected the new COVID-19 strain, including the UK. (jes)

Editor’s note: This article is part of a public campaign by the COVID-19 task force to raise people’s awareness about the pandemic.

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