Official warns millions could be infected in bird flu pandemic

Emmy Fitri ,  The Jakarta Post ,  Jakarta   |  Sat, 04/19/2008 12:24 PM  |  Headlines

More than 60 million people, or one fourth of Indonesia's population, could be infected with avian influenza if the virus -- H5N1 -- gains the ability to spread easily from human to human, an official said Friday.

Chief executive of the National Commission for Avian Influenza and Pandemic Preparedness, Bayu Krisnamurthi, said the estimate was based on human fatalities during the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic.

"Sixty-six million people could be infected. More than 150,000 people could die from various causes, including late treatment and the unavailability of hospital beds if a pandemic strikes here," he said.

Bayu said that according to the World Health Organization standard, Indonesia is now at Phase 3 of Pandemic Alert Status, which means a virus is new to humans and causing infections, but does not spread easily from one person to another.

"I believe no country will be ready if a pandemic strikes.

"But it's like a natural disaster. We can have an early warning system for tsunamis, why not prepare for bird flu?" Bayu said.

Indonesia reported its first human case in 2005 and now leads the world in human bird flu deaths with 107. Worldwide, the disease, whose early symptoms resemble those of the common cold, has infected more than 350 people.

Experts fear the virus -- originally a poultry disease -- could trigger a global pandemic if it mutates into a form more easily transmittable among humans.

Several countries, including Indonesia, have devised pandemic preparedness plans to anticipate this scenario.

To mark the launch of the National Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response Plan, the country is set to hold an influenza pandemic simulation in Bali next week.

The simulation, from April 25-27 in Dangin Tukadaya in Jembrana regency, is meant to test the viability of the plan, which was authored by the commission after a series of discussions with experts and UN agencies.

"Indonesia will be the first country to try out the plan in a massive scale simulation," Bayu said.

"The plan is a living document which means we will improve it from time to time. The simulation is a way to see if it works.

"One critical factor that has prompted us to hold this pandemic simulation is our (pandemic alert) status," Bayu said.

Of the total 107 deaths in Indonesia, 13 occurred this month.

Jointly funded by the government and the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control, the simulation, with a budget of nearly US$500,000, will involve 1,000 people and touch upon seven pandemic preparedness points. These points are control command, surveillance and laboratory support, media response, quarantine, risk communications, territorial containment and public mobility restrictions.

The Health Ministry's director general for infectious diseases, I Nyoman Kandun, said Jembrana was selected for the simulation because the government wanted to see communication aspects with the tourism sector.

"The village also has reported human cases, so we'd like to have Balinese public figures and religious leaders involved in this simulation. Tourists will also be involved so we'll get close-to-reality scenes," he said.

During the three-day simulation, the village will be closed off. The police and Indonesian Military personnel will restrict access into and out of the village. The simulation will also try out thermal checks and other measures applied to passengers at Ngurah Rai airport.

After the Jembrana simulation, the government hopes to hold at least eight more simulations on a smaller scale. Earlier this year, Tangerang and Serang hosted small-scale pandemic simulations.

"No one knows when and where the next influenza pandemic epicenter will be, but it is always better to be prepared," Kandun said.

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