The winner, the losers and the A-Team

Thu, 07/09/2009 1:35 PM  |  Headlines

Less than six hours after the polls closed the pieces for a new political chess game were already being set.

To the victor go the spoils. The losers find a way to safe face and themselves. The obstinate blame the system, as the wily find scapegoats to exploit for the next success.

While Susilo Bambang Yudho-yono's entourage revel in their hour of triumph, ever so careful as not to give a gloating impression, strategists were aware of the impending need to skilfully maneuver a viable long-term coalition for the re-elected president.

Despite the landslide victory, there is no guarantee the President can effectively govern given the roster of his present coalition, which consist of a hodgepodge of small parties dominated by religious factions.

Yudhoyono's two challengers may be in their twilight, but the political machinery behind them - the Golkar party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) - can either be a menacing force or a valuable asset both in the legislature and to off-set the center-right Islamist leanings of his coalition.

Though he may have found it necessary to mollify his coalition for electoral support, SBY may not find them individually indispensable if it means roping in Golkar or the PDI-P.

After such a poor showing, vice president and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla may have to make good on his pledge to pulang kampung (return to his hometown) if defeated, sooner rather than later.

Change is in the air.

The utter defeat grounds the expedition of the scheduled December Golkar Party congress. If so, Kalla will likely lose both his current positions - vice president and party chairman - by October when a new government is sworn in.

Busy behind the scenes are the A-Team comprised of a former chairman, deputy chairman, and likely future chairman. Like the popular 1980s TV series of the same name, Golkar's A-Team combines maverick individuals of different fortes and resources unified by a compelling short-term mission.

Their combined internal network now seems to have garnered a majority of the party's 550 regional branches to support an extraordinary congress.

Notice how the latter of three seemed to be so obscure in the present campaign despite his influential and pecuniary role in the SBY-Kalla winning ticket in 2004.

There might be a risk of initially splitting Golkar, but with the promise of a role in government and no other internal factions to compete strongly enough even the toughest detractors will eventually fall in line behind the new party regime.

All three members are men suitable for the re-elected president, either in character, political convenience or past financial necessity.

And what of the former president who has now failed twice to be re-elected?

The paradox remains the same as it was before the election: Megawati Soekarnoputri is PDI-P's strongest asset and at the same time their biggest liability.

Personal dislike will likely corrode any bridge that can be built between PDI-P and the new administration despite the best efforts of trusted advisors and even spouse to negotiate potential headway.

Whether or not the former president will have learnt her lesson, or become more stubborn in her political ambitions is anyone's guess. But from the immediate post-election rhetoric of blaming systemic failures in the electoral process it is likely to be the latter.

Barring a sudden epiphany, Megawati will likely take her party down the root of opposition to join with the likes of Gerindra and Hanura and perhaps even show an initial commitment in the near future to support her running mate's ambitions in 2014.

Yudhoyono's electoral fortunes may also be fortunate for someone like Hatta Radjasa, whose role in the president's winning campaign team has elevated him even further in national politics and within his own National Mandate Party (PAN).

His influence will only increase if he can broker a new coalition with either PDI-P or Golkar.

With incumbent Sutrisno Bachir a lame duck PAN chairman, all Hatta needs is the final blessing of party founder Amien Rais who retains significant emotional influence.

And as the behind-the-scenes drama unfold, we realize that while voters may have chosen the president, it is still the politicians who determine the true fate of this nation.

Describing politics as the second-oldest profession, the late former US President Ronald Reagan once remarked "I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first".

Hence we understand why they say that "politics makes strange

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