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China’s one-child policy has given trump card to US in trade war
The demographic challenge that has been facing Asia’s ageing economy for at least a decade has kept its economy in the dumps. To be fair, population growth has declined sharply across the world on the back of increased urbanization and greater awareness of contraception.
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The United States and China are two of the world’s most powerful economies. The dynamics in the two countries’ relations can significantly affect the global economy. (Shutterstock/File)
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n 2017 Japan saw the fewest baby births since statistics compilation began in 1899. Only 941,000 children were born in 2017 — one sixth the children born in Indonesia. The demographic challenge that has been facing Asia’s ageing economy for at least a decade has kept its economy in the dumps. To be fair, population growth has declined sharply across the world on the back of increased urbanization and greater awareness of contraception.
In 1990, the birth rate across the world per woman was 3.95 which fell to 2.72 by 2016. The globally accepted benchmark of 2.1 children per woman is needed to replace a population. Sub-Saharan Africa is driving population with a birth rate of 4.85 while nations like Indonesia and India are keeping population stable with birth rates of 2.3 according to data from World Bank. China’s birth rate has remained at 1.5 since 1995.
It is this factor United States President Donald Trump is counting on as part of his trade negotiations with China. China is the world’s most populous nation today but has made strenuous efforts in curbing population growth through its draconian one-child policy that existed between 1979 and 2015. That policy has worked in curbing population in many provinces but had unintended consequences for China.
In a presentation that Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research gave to Trump’s economic advisers last month, he says “China’s one-child policy has created a demographic nightmare for the country and that China is seeking to become a super-power before it turns into the world’s largest nursing home.”
