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Jakarta Post

2010 market outlook: Who will pull the trigger first?

  • Harry Su

    Senior Vice President, Head of Research

  /   Thu, February 4 2010   /  12:06 pm

During our recent Indonesia strategy marketing trip we spent two full days in Singapore and another two full days in Hong Kong, meeting with various fund managers. We found that all of those in Singapore were still very much bullish on Indonesia, agreeing with us that the Indonesian market performance would be better in the first half of 2010 than in the second, because the risk of rising inflation and interest rates was expected to be higher in the second half of 2010.Virtually everyone was overweight in cyclicals, with coal clearly the single-most preferred space. Some fund managers disagreed with us on banks, because of the contagion effect from regional de-rating, expensive valuations and concerns over loan growth — particularly given the reduced in spending on infrastructure in 2010. It is worth noting here that the Public Works Ministry will be spending only Rp 34 trillion in 201...