T

he risk of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula remains a crucial problem in Asia. More than 60 years after the end of the Korean War, there is still no peace agreement but an armistice only. The conflict is caught in a stalemate between superpowers.

Since the Six-Party Talks were suspended in 2009, there have been no serious diplomatic interactions to work on any solution. Relations between North and South Korea are deteriorating.

We see increased inflammatory rhetoric and an alarming nuclear proliferation. It leaves Asia exposed to a potential outbreak of nuclear, chemical and/or conventional warfare. There are five reasons why Indonesia should consider developing a new diplomatic initiative to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula.

First, Indonesia’s strategic interests are at stake in Northeast Asia. The unfolding of any scenario of greater tension, further nuclear proliferation and potential violent conflict would have significant negative impacts on Indonesia.

A substantial part of Indonesia’s primary trade and investment relationships are with countries in Northeast Asia, including China, South Korea and Japan.

Sizable communities of Indonesians live and work in these countries and vice versa. A destabilization of Northeast Asia could have severe economic, social and political implications for Indonesia.

Second, an additional outside party with sufficient leverage could play a meaningful role in order to unlock the conflict by creating more opportunities to talk about common interests.

Mongolia is playing this role in the northeast region. It provides a safe space for dialogues at civil society and academic levels.

But these efforts should be amplified by representing the legitimate interest of Southeast Asia in easing tensions and working toward a peace agreement.

The Korean Peninsula has been the subject of “strategic patience” by the United States and “strategic tolerance” by China, neither of which has worked to improve the situation.

Indonesia could help to break this deadlock by providing “strategic mediation” by sending a high-level representative to Pyongyang and Seoul with no conditions and an open agenda.

Third, Indonesia is well positioned to convene a conversation between the different parties involved. At the level of superpowers, Indonesia has good relations with China, the US and Russia.

Indonesia also has friendly relations with both South and North Korea. The latter is due to the leading role of Indonesia in the non-aligned movement and the resulting close connections between the Sukarno family and Kim Il-sung’s family, which positively resonate up to this day.

This edge in approaching North Korea is no small advantage in this complex context and has not yet been optimally used by Indonesia.

Fourth, recent geopolitical shifts indicate that more than ever, solutions for peace and security are to be found within Asia.

To the extent we are able to say anything about the foreign policy of the next US administration, it indicates a tendency to step back from extended obligations overseas and instead promote the resourcing of defense costs locally.

Japan and South Korea are increasingly aware of this new reality, which is beginning to eat away at their underlying sense of security.

The opportunity this creates to realign relations and settle the Korean dispute can only be used if a credible scenario is presented whereby the influence of China will not become too dominant over other countries in the region.

This requires construing a comprehensive balance of power that involves Southeast Asia.

Indonesia playing a constructive role supporting peace in Northeast Asia will enhance Indonesia’s relations with China and thus also strengthen its position to deal with issues in the South China Sea.

Fifth, Indonesia has to assert its leading role in Southeast Asia and continue to ensure the cohesion of ASEAN as an instrument of peace and security.

Indonesia is the biggest country in Southeast Asia, yet is does not have a high profile in approaching key issues of peace and security.

Recently, the Philippines has manifested a particular self-confidence in dealings with the US, China and Russia, drifting toward bilateral arrangements in the South China Sea that are not desirable if they are not integrated into a regional framework.

This creates a situation that Indonesia needs to respond to, also taking into account that the Philippines will chair ASEAN in 2017.

Indonesia cannot afford to continue punching under its weight in Asia. The primary goal of Indonesia’s foreign policy should be to promote Southeast Asia as a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality (ZOPFAN) that will sustain a healthy balance of power with China and Northeast Asia.

To develop a new diplomatic initiative to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula would create an opportunity to comprehensively secure Indonesia’s strategic interest both in South and Northeast Asia.
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The writer is a senior adviser with the Partnership for Government Reform (Kemitraan). He is involved in civil diplomacy in Northeast Asia convened by the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC).