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Slim odds for mid-sized political parties
Pollsters predict that this year’s legislative race will be a challenging one for mid-sized parties, as the legislative and presidential elections will be held concurrently on April 17
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span>Pollsters predict that this year’s legislative race will be a challenging one for mid-sized parties, as the legislative and presidential elections will be held concurrently on April 17.
A survey released on Wednesday by the research and development department of the Kompas daily shows that only six of the 16 political parties vying for legislative seats are likely to pass the 4 percent electoral threshold.
The United Development Party (PPP), the country’s oldest Islamic party, and the National Mandate Party (PAN), which was established at the start of the Reform Era, are two parties with Muslim constituents that are expected to lose their seats at the House of Representatives, as they are estimated to obtain just 2.7 and 2.9 percent, respectively.
The NasDem Party and the Hanura Party, whose chairmen are close allies of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, are predicted to obtain only 2.6 and 0.9 percent, according to the survey. Hanura is lowest among the political parties in a number of polls, with many political observers believing this is due to an internal rift in the party and a number of controversial remarks by party chairman Oesman Sapta Odang, a businessman-turned-politician.
The Kompas survey also shows that four newcomers joining the election this year, namely the United Indonesia Party (Perindo), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), the Berkarya Party and the Garuda Party, also would not make it to the House, because Perindo only secured 1.5 percent, while the three others got less than 1 percent each.
University of Indonesia (UI) political expert Ari Junaedi said most of the newcomers had a flawed branding strategy. “Instead of proving that they can offer something different, they often make blunders,” Ari said.
PSI chairwoman Grace Natalie, for example, recently made a controversial remark accusing nationalist parties, including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) of being “insufficiently nationalist”, as they supported the issuance of Sharia bylaws. The PSI and PDI-P are in one coalition endorsing President Jokowi’s reelection. “Such statements will disturb the solidity and stability among parties in the coalition,” Ari said.
Other pollsters also forecast victory for large parties.
A survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia shows that PDI-P tops the list for legislative election with an expected 21.6 percent share of the vote, followed by the Gerindra Party with 12.2 percent, the Golkar Party with 10.7 percent, the PKB with 9.3 percent and the Democratic Party with 6.3 percent.
The latest poll by Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) points to the same trend, with the PDI-P securing 23.7 percent. Gerindra follows with 14.6 percent and Golkar with 11.3 percent.
Both surveys predict that none of the four new parties pass the threshold, as they were predicted to get less than 1 percent.
The Kompas survey predicted that only six parties would make the grade, with the PDI-P, Golkar and the opposition’s Gerindra leading the survey.
Other parties that are expected to have a smooth ride into the House are the Democratic Party and two Islamic parties: the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Awakening Party (PKB). The PKS is believed to be backed by Muslim conservative and hard-line Islamist groups, particularly in West Java, the country’s most populous and most conservative province. Meanwhile, the PKB is known as the political wing of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest and dominant Muslim organization.
Political observer Pangi Syarwi Chaniago from Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic State University (UIN) Jakarta said the uphill battle for small and mid-sized parties was also a consequence of the concurrent legislative and presidential elections.
“That will be confusing and exhausting. [Voters] will see too many options on the ballots. This situation will benefit the parties that have figures running as presidential candidates,” Pangi said. Only the PDI-P and Gerindra have members running in the presidential race.
Responding to the survey, PAN executive Yandri Susanto said the party was not worried because, since the Reform Era, the PAN had always made it to the House.
“Based on our history, we always secure seats at the House. This period, we can obtain a seat on the House speaker board. What determines the votes we gather is not the loyalists of our party but the electability and popularity of our legislative candidates,” Yandri said.
