After more than a year of negotiations, ASEAN leaders have finally adopted a document outlining the organization’s geostrategic concept of the Indo-Pacific region, in which the regional grouping emphasized its centrality amid the competing global powers, mainly the United States and China.

Observers, however, are skeptical the document would be able to serve its purpose.

The document, named “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”, was adopted in the plenary session of the 34th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on Saturday evening.

The adoption was concluded despite a rumor last week that Singapore wanted more time to discuss the matter.

Proposed by Indonesia, the outlook is intended to serve as the guideline for ASEAN in engaging its external partners, including the rivaling superpowers of the US and China.

“This outlook represents the centrality and force of ASEAN in upholding the principles of peacekeeping, fostering a culture of dialogue and strengthening cooperation,” President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo said at the meeting.

Jokowi said the outlook was increasingly relevant to the world’s developments, as the trade war between the US and China had not shown any signs of reconcilement and there was “a concern that the trade war is growing into a multi-front war” that could have an impact on the security and stability of the region.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who is chairing the bloc this year, said the leaders agreed to reinforce ASEAN’s leading role in the conduct of relations with external partners in the region.

”I wish to express my appreciation to his excellency the President of Indonesia, who has played an important role in driving the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific,” he told reporters in a post summit briefing on Sunday.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, meanwhile, said he was happy the grouping had endorsed the outlook.

“I hope that this outlook can strengthen the existing inclusive, ASEAN-led regional architecture and maintain a stable region that all of us will benefit from,” he said as quoted by The Straits Times.

Ibrahim Almutaqqi, head of the ASEAN Studies Program at the Habibie Center think tank, said the pressure by Indonesia including the recent leak that Singapore was “holding back” the adoption of the outlook could be the reason that the city-state conceded.

An Indo-Pacific concept is an evolving strategic concept for a vast regional architecture that underpins the area straddling the Indian and Pacific oceans, interpretations of which vary depending on the geopolitical interests of countries in the region.

The term was popularized by US President Donald Trump when he laid out America’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific in Vietnam in 2017, even though the idea of it has been around since 2003.

Following the US, many countries have set their sights on the region and developed their own concepts, from India’s Act East Policy and Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific to Australia’s Foreign Policy White Paper and South Korea’s New Southern Policy.

Many have said the US concept was aimed at containing Chinese expansion with its multibillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Southeast Asia.

Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi said the five-page document detailed the key elements and goals of the outlook, as well as the principles and possible areas of cooperation.

“From now on, when we discuss the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN as a whole has a perspective on what the elements are, what the principle is and what cooperation we want. In this outlook the spirit is to maintain ASEAN centrality, promote a culture of dialogue and cooperation and maintain peace,” she said.

Indonesia has maintained that an ASEAN-led Indo-Pacific regional architecture should be discussed at the East Asia Summit, consisting of the 10 ASEAN member states and all countries that have Indo-Pacific concepts of their own.

Retno said the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific was an independent perspective that did not close the possibility of cooperation with outside parties.

“Our Indo-Pacific outlook will be our guideline for ASEAN to enhance cooperation with other parties in meetings using the ASEAN mechanism,” she said.

Indonesian observers, however, have played down the document’s significance.

“There does not seem to be anything bold or innovative that will help guide ASEAN on how to navigate ongoing US-China rivalry. Indeed, the rivalry is only vaguely mentioned,” Ibrahim said, adding that the document appeared to operate in a vacuum and made vague mention of the strategic challenges that compelled ASEAN to adopt its own Indo-Pacific Outlook, including the US-China rivalry.

Evan Laksmana of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said the concept could not and would not help ASEAN navigate the ongoing US-China rivalry.

“Concepts don’t float freely and solve problems. Regional states still need to be committed to do something to change the behavior and perception of Beijing and Washington even as they still need to manage regional economic and security challenges.”

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