Airlangga, who is also the coordinating economic minister in President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s second-term Cabinet, has claimed to have secured 90 percent support, equal to around 514 of the 559 votes in the congress. For the past few days, he has been visiting various regions to gather support, with candidates required to obtain written statements of support from 30 percent of the party's regency and provincial-level branches.

He also held a meeting with Regional Representatives Council (DPD) leaders and several senior party figures on Monday evening including Aburizal Bakrie, Agung Laksono, Akbar Tandjung, former vice president Jusuf Kalla as well as fellow minister in Jokowi’s Cabinet, Luhut Pandjaitan, which observers say is another sign that an Airlangga win is all but assured.

"In the past there have been two keys to becoming Golkar chairman: money and the blessing of the palace," Indonesia Political Review executive director Ujang Komarudin told The Jakarta Post on Monday. "Both Airlangga and Bambang are very rich, so I think the support of the government will be the deciding factor."

Airlangga loyalist and party secretary-general Lodewijk Freidrich Paulus claimed Monday’s meeting was simply to inform senior officials that the incumbent had secured the majority of the vote.

"We need to inform the senior members. After that, we hope they will give us, the voters, some directions.

However, Lodewijk denied that Airlangga’s meeting with Luhut was a sign that Jokowi supported Airlangga. "Luhut came as a senior [Golkar politician] who supports Airlangga, not as a minister," he said.

In previous Golkar leadership races, the closer a candidate has been to the government, the better their chances of winning have been. In 1998, for example, Akbar, who was close to then-president Habibie, defeated Edi Sudrajat at the party's national congress. In 2004, Jusuf Kalla was elected as the party chairman when he was vice president to former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

In 2009, Aburizal, who was the coordinating people's welfare minister in Yudhoyono’s Cabinet, defeated Surya Paloh for the top spot. The same also happened in 2016 when former House of Representatives speaker Setya Novanto was elected as party leader.

Airlangga, however, has denied that certain figures in the government were siding with him to pave the way for his reelection, pointing out that the party members who could vote in the national congress were members of provincial legislative councils (DPRD I) and regional and municipal legislative councils (DPRD II).

"They are the voters, so there’s no need to talk about anyone outside the party,” the former industry minister said.

Golkar official Syamsul Rizal, a Bambang loyalist, said Luhut was one of the "palace representatives" that supported Airlangga’s reelection bid. Besides Luhut, he claimed to have also received reports that State Secretary Pratikno and Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung had tried to pressure regional Golkar leaders and DPRD chairs into supporting Airlangga.

"We received calls from several DPRD members that some of their leaders, as well as Golkar regional heads, had been pressured by certain Cabinet members to support Airlangga, and not just in one province,” Syamsul said.

Airlangga loyalist Christina Aryani, who is also the party's deputy secretary-general, brushed off the accusation as baseless and ridiculous.

"These so-called 'palace representatives' have nothing to do with our congress,” she said.

Christina added that Jokowi had made clear he would not interfere in Golkar's internal affairs, including through his ministers.

Jokowi echoed Christina's comments and denied making any intervention in the race, saying that it was an internal Golkar matter.

“As a big party that has a long history in our politics, I think it’s impossible for [Golkar] to be interfered with by ministers from the outside,” he said on Monday at the Presidential Palace.

“[Pratikno] must be very powerful if he can intervene in Golkar.”

Jakarta-based pollster Populi Center director Usep S. Ahyar said Jokowi's denial might be hard for some to accept given the importance of the party's support for the President.

"As one of the three biggest political parties in the country, Golkar is very important to the Jokowi administration," he told the Post. "Especially given the fact that Jokowi himself is not a party head, so he needs the political support that Golkar offers."

The feeling is mutual, he added, as at the same time, Golkar also needed Jokowi.

"I think the party's electability in the last election improved because it supported Jokowi, and three of its members are in the Cabinet," he said.

For his part, Bambang reiterated on Monday that whatever happened, the party would remain committed to "supporting the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin government."

Despite Airlangga's seemingly insurmountable lead, Bambang said he remained optimistic.

"I believe more in fate," he said. "Whatever anyone does, if fate says differently, nothing can stop it."

Besides Airlangga and Bambang, seven other party members had also submitted their registration forms to the election committee as of Monday. The other candidates are Ahmad Anama, Indra Bambang Utoyo, Ridwan Hisjam, Agun Gunandjar Sudarsa, M. Aris Mandji, Derek Loupatty and Mohamad Ali Yahya.

— Marchio Irfan Gorbiano contributed to this story.

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