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umerous promotions and tours of duty within the Indonesian Military (TNI) have occurred this year, but the inauguration of Adm. Yudo Margono and Air Chief Marshal Fadjar Prasetyo as Navy and Air Force chiefs of staff, respectively, on May 20 had been much anticipated since January.

In more ways than one, the selection of Yudo and Fadjar departs from military tradition in the ranking and career promotion of high-level officers. For the first time, the chosen candidates for the top posts of the Navy and Air Force did not hold posts within the forces. Both Yudo and Fajar each commanded a Joint Defense Area Command (Kogabwilhan), a new TNI organ set up last year to foster interoperability of the three armed forces.

There are three Kogabwilhan in the country. Yudo, who led Kogabwilhan I based in Riau Islands and overseeing the western part of Indonesia, replaces Adm. Siwi Sukma Adji who is retiring soon. Fajar, who headed East Kalimantan-based Kogabwilhan II overseeing the central part of the country, takes over from Air Chief Marshal Yuyu Sutisna, who will retire next month.

Kogabwilhan III is based in Papua and commanded by Lt. Gen. Ganip Warsito.

The breakthrough appointments of Yudo and Fadjar, however, will unlikely be the last surprises in military reshuffles, especially with regard to the TNI leadership succession.

The incumbent TNI chief, Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto, will only retire in November next year when he reaches mandatory retirement age of 58. However, a discourse on his possible replacement has long started in the media.

TNI Law No. 34/2004 states that the post of TNI chief is for active personnel serving or having served as chief of any of the three armed forces – the Air Force, the Army or the Navy. The law also stipulates the TNI chief post can be rotated among the three branches. The top position in the country’s military is, therefore, up for grabs for a very limited number of candidates – three in the current context: Army chief Gen. Andika Perkasa, Yudo and Fadjar.

There may be a fourth contender if President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo names a deputy TNI chief soon.

Of the three chiefs of staff, Andika, who is widely tipped as the strongest candidate for the TNI top job, is the most senior officer in the race. A 1987 Military Academy graduate, Andika will turn 56 this December. Yudo and Fadjar are both 1988 graduates, with Yudo turning 55 this November and Fadjar turning 55 in April next year.

The three chiefs of staff, however, have more or less equally sufficient military experience. Andika and Fadjar have had deployment and assignment in the three key fields – combat or operation, command post and education – throughout their military careers, while Yudo has been in both naval operations and command posts at various levels, but not in education.

Apart from those technical, administrative and academic capacities that a TNI chief candidate must possess, there are other factors that will help a candidate win the appointment.

First of all, it will largely depend on the President’s personal consideration. Although, it is not permanently practiced, President Jokowi is believed to have put forward friendship and trust in his eventual choice of Hadi as the TNI commander in December 2017.

Jokowi’s close association with Hadi had begun when Jokowi was the mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, in 2005-2012, while Hadi was the chief of the Adisumarmo Airbase in the city in 2010. Their friendship continued when Jokowi appointed Hadi as his military secretary in 2015, promoted him as Air Force chief of staff in January 2017 and then as TNI chief in December 2017.

Second, Jokowi also has the tendency of entrusting strategic posts to candidates who had long terms of service, as in the cases of Hadi and Tito Karnavian as the National Police chief in 2016. Hadi had four years of active service when appointed TNI chief, while Tito had six years.

The appointment of a TNI chief should also consider the increasing global security challenges. Nations worldwide, including Indonesia, will have to deal with more complicated, globally-induced problems in the future. While conventional warfare and terrorist attacks will continue threatening the global establishment, unconventional warfare in the forms of cyber, biological, chemical or nuclear attacks are likely to be on the rise in the future.

The next and future TNI chiefs should be at the forefront in responding to both conventional and unconventional warfare challenges. Besides maintaining personnel’s conventional warfare and terror response capabilities, the TNI chief, along with the Defense Ministry, should therefore expand the capacity of military units, such as the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Company (Nubika) under the Military Engineers Directorate of the Indonesian Army, and the Cyber Unit of the TNI headquarters.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has demanded increased capacity of specialized units, such as Nubika, in the nation’s joint pandemic response, while the TNI’s Cyber Unit is expected to continuously update itself on rapidly progressing cyber technology and upgrade its personnel’s cyber response capacity.

It remains to be seen whether Andika will eventually receive the President’s nod or whether the Kogabwilhan will continue its historic trajectory by producing a TNI commander.