W

est Java, being a close neighbor of Jakarta, has been among the provinces hardest hit by COVID-19, but it is looking into easing restrictions in “low-risk” areas after claiming that large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) have yielded desirable results.

The province recorded 40 new cases on Friday, bringing its total confirmed cases to 2,002 with 125 fatalities and 432 recoveries, according to the central government’s tally. This has led West Java to become the third hardest-hit province after Jakarta and East Java.

“I believe the pandemic is related to density, it’s a density disease. The more dense the area is, the more cases are likely to be found,” West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil said during a recent online discussion with foreign ambassadors. “The majority of cases [...] occurred in Greater Jakarta.”

The province is home to around 49 million people, some 33 percent of whom can be found in Jakarta’s satellite regions, where people who work in the capital city commonly reside.

Data from the administration shows that cases in Jakarta’s satellite cities accounted for at least 60 percent of the province’s total cases as of Friday, while West Java’s capital of Bandung city recorded 271 cases and 31 fatalities, the highest number of deaths in the province.

PSBB measures have been in place in West Java since May 6, and they are expected to last until May 29, although Bogor, Depok and Bekasi — satellite regions of Jakarta — put restrictions in place much earlier on April 15. Greater Bandung also first imposed PSBB measures on April 22.

It has identified five infection clusters so far: a seminar of the National Police’s Officer Candidate School in Sukabumi; the Bethel Church of Indonesia (GBI) in Lembang; an antiusury seminar in Bogor; a religious seminar held by the Protestant Churches of Western Indonesia (GPIB) in Bogor; and a West Java youth entrepreneurs forum in Karawang.

Recently, local health authorities said they were still tracing contacts from the first two clusters and ramping up efforts to scale up their polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing capacity.

The province has tested only 10,791 people so far, which has made it difficult to effectively capture the scale of the outbreak and decide on the necessary intervention measures, said epidemiologist Panji Hadisoemarto from Padjadjaran University in Bandung.

This also applies to measuring the province’s effective reproduction number (Re), which Ridwan revealed to be 1.04 as of May 15. The effective reproduction number refers to the number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population, with a number below 1 indicating the epidemic is under control and in decline.

“There must be adequate contact tracing, testing [...] and accurate and timely reporting [of new cases],” Panji said.

Ridwan said during a press briefing on Wednesday that the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had decreased from 430 patients in April to 270 patients following the introduction of the PSBB. Isolation wards were only at 33 percent capacity, he said.

As he claimed the curve of transmission was flattening, Ridwan also announced that the region’s PSBB measures would continue “proportionately” based on each region’s transmission risk level, which would be reviewed using several indicators every two weeks. PSBB measures will also be implemented at the subdistrict or village levels.

“Theoretically, this is a good policy, but it’ll be difficult to translate into practice at the village level. There must be clear technical guidelines [for enforcement],” Panji said.

The province’s red zones, or those at severe risk, comprise Bekasi regency, Bekasi municipality and Cimahi municipality, meaning that they would have to continue to implement PSBB measures, with economic activities operating only at 30 percent of their normal levels.

Blue zones, which comprise West Bandung, Pangandaran, Sumedang and Garut regencies and Sukabumi municipality, are at moderate risk and would be allowed to reopen all public and commercial facilities while ensuring that there are no crowds.

The remaining regions, meanwhile, are in the yellow zones, classified as at moderate to severe risk, and are allowed to increase economic activity to around 60 percent of normal levels, while maintaining physical distancing measures.

No city or regency is a black zone, which indicates critical risk and requires a total lockdown, nor are any considered green zones, which are low-risk areas where people are allowed to gather.

However, detailed mapping at the lower levels show that 667 subdistricts and villages are deemed black zones, and most are in Jakarta’s satellite regions and Greater Bandung.