Prabowo, who ran against President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections, has yet to declare that he will run again in 2024. However, some Gerindra executives have said that the current defense minister would consider the possibility if he garnered support from the party's cadres and the public.

Prabowo in a speech at Saturday’s congress did not publicly address the issue despite all party branch leaders having asked him to run again.

"Prabowo said in the congress that he would make a decision one year or one-and-a-half years before the presidential election," party secretary-general Ahmad Muzani said on Saturday.

Among all potential candidates for the 2024 race, Prabowo is currently the strongest contender, given his party chairmanship, his close ties with the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and his lead in the polls.

He has also become a prominent member in the Jokowi administration as the President recently appointed him to lead the national food security program, a position that in regular circumstances should be under the Agriculture Ministry. He will lead the development of a food estate on 165,000 hectares of land in Pulang Pisau regency in Central Kalimantan.     

At Saturday’s congress, for the first time, both Jokowi and PDI-P chair Megawati Soekarnoputri gave virtual speeches during the event, in a display of strong government support for the party. From its establishment in 2008 until last year, Gerindra had been outside the government, taking the role of opposition.   

Prabowo told the press after the congress that Jokowi and Megawati's presence was proof that Gerindra had built a strong alliance with the ruling party. "This is to emphasize that we are in a solid coalition," Prabowo said.

A retired Army general and former son-in-law of the country’s second president Soeharto, Prabowo has run several times in the presidential race, including as Megawati’s vice president pick in the 2009 election.   

Megawati at that time made a political pledge, known as the Batu Tulis pact, containing among other commitments, her promise to support Prabowo's nomination in the 2014 presidential election. But their relationship was believed to have been severed when the PDI-P eventually nominated the Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla pair for the 2014 race.

Following the 2019 election, however, Megawati helped Prabowo and Gerindra reconcile with President Jokowi and join the government. Prabowo was also frequently seen at many PDI-P events, including the PDI-P congress in August 2019.

Gerindra Party spokesperson Andre Rosiade said there was a possibility of a coalition of both parties for the 2024 election. "We cannot predict the future. Bu Mega gave a speech as the fifth Indonesian president. However, politically, it does not rule out the possibility that we will form a coalition with the PDI-P in 2024,“ Andre said.

PDI-P executive Hendrawan Supratikno had also previously said the party was maintaining a relationship for "future cooperation" with Gerindra.

Experts have also pointed to the possibility of Prabowo and House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani, who is also Megawati's daughter, running together for the 2024 election.

Surveys carried out by Indo Barometer and Indikator Politik Indonesia in February, for instance, showed Prabowo taking a strong lead among other top potential candidates with an electability rate of around 22 percent.

In July, Charta Politica’s survey showed he was remained the strongest candidate with an electability rate of 17.5 percent.

However, according to Indikator Politik Indonesia's latest survey also published in July, Prabowo's electability rate dropped by 8.5 percent, being surpassed by Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, a member of the PDI-P, who topped the list, followed by Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

Indonesia Political Review executive director Ujang Komarudin said the political capital that Prabowo had now would not be enough, as Prabowo would have a hard time winning back support from conservative Muslim groups that had been his supporters in the 2019 election. The groups have expressed disappointment in Prabowo’s decision to join Jokowi's coalition.

"The 212 rally goers have also been disappointed. We can't undermine their disappointment," Ujang said, referring to a movement supported by hardline Muslim groups that had held street rallies since November 2016 to demand the prosecution of former Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, a close ally of Jokowi, for blasphemy.  

It has since organized and carried out several events attended by a large number of Muslims to support the campaign of Prabowo, with Prabowo attending some of them.

Prabowo's relationship with the PDI-P was likely to "ebb and flow" given their past dynamics, Ujang said, adding that any certainty on a coalition could only be seen one year prior to the election.

"It's a matter of interests only [...] For instance, if [the PDI-P] insists that Puan be Prabowo's running mate, while her electability is low, it'll be a problem," he said.

Indo Barometer's February survey showed that Puan's electability stood at 1 percent, while Indikator Politik Indonesia's July survey put her at 2 percent. This is despite the fact she has been one of the lawmakers to garner the most votes in two consecutive general elections.

Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) political observer Arya Fernandes said there was not a tradition of permanent coalitions in Indonesian politics, with coalitions tending to be dynamic and largely dependent on political circumstances regarding the executive branch and nominations for the presidential election.

He argued that Prabowo's political chances had also weakened, as shown by his declining votes between the 2014 and the 2019 presidential elections and post-election surveys, as well as the emergence of current regional heads as strong potential rivals and changes among the public, who wanted a fresh name. 

"[Prabowo is part of] the political establishment — he communicates with Megawati and has been appointed as defense minister, but what he needs to win is public support and sympathy," he said.

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