Politicians, activists and journalists have been arrested to muzzle opposition and critical voices against the military generals who annulled the results of the November democratic elections, won overwhelmingly by the National League for Democracy (NLD).

Can anyone outside Myanmar really put a stop to this killing and reverse the course? What can its immediate neighbors in ASEAN do?

An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Friday failed to come up with a strong statement against the Myanmar military, as big powers with veto rights argued over whether to intervene and how. The massive international condemnations and appeals for restraint since the coup have fallen on deaf ears. Even if the Security Council does come up with a statement, the junta isn’t likely to budge.

Economic sanctions and boycotts aren’t going to have much of an impact either. Historically, such actions eventually hurt ordinary people more than the ruling elite through economic hardship and more repression. Sanctions serve the moral ego of governments that impose them, mostly playing to their domestic constituents to show that they are doing something.

Read also: [INSIGHT] Myanmar matters to ASEAN, Indonesia

Asian countries, including Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors, have been criticized for not going along with the West’s sanctions. One analyst even blames Asian countries for helping to extend the life to the junta. When we feel helpless, we try to find scapegoats.

Some activists call on the United Nations to invoke the Responsibility to Protect, a mechanism that allows the international community to interfere militarily to stop genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. This is a long shot.

It remains to be seen how long the world will let things deteriorate in Myanmar before it acts. The Syrian scenario comes to mind, when intervention came too little and too late. We shouldn’t raise our hopes. The world failed to act when the same Myanmar military led the killing and persecution of millions of its own people of the Rohingya ethnic group.

Diplomacy, with all its limitations, is still worth pursuing. As Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi has said, “Doing nothing is not an option.” Expectations run high that ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, can do something.

Through her active diplomacy, a videoconference of ASEAN foreign ministers took place last week involving all 10 member countries, including a representative of the Myanmar junta.

Read also: Fresh bloodshed in Myanmar as UN urged to hear 'desperate pleas'

The meeting came up with the mildest statement on Myanmar, invoking the noninterference principle that effectively stopped the group from getting stronger. With all decisions made by consensus, we should temper our expectations. But the foreign ministers of Indonesia and Singapore came out with separate statements after the meeting, harsher in tone, including calling for the release of political prisoners, indicating disagreement during the closed-door meeting.

As the largest ASEAN member, Indonesia could have gone stronger than merely “expressing concerns” at the turn of events in Myanmar, but condemning the junta or joining the sanctions would be a sure recipe for closing down all lines of communication with the regime.

Any hope for diplomacy would be dashed when all communications stop. Since ASEAN does not have the economic or military means to pressure Myanmar, diplomacy remains its only option.

Shutting the doors to diplomacy risks forcing the junta to isolate Myanmar once again. The last time it did in 1962, it took almost the whole six decades before it rejoined the world community.

Missing in all this discussion is the role that ASEAN had played in pushing Myanmar to end its isolation, starting with the invitation to join ASEAN in 1997, and constantly pressuring through diplomacy for the military rulers to change. ASEAN withheld giving the rotating chair to Myanmar subject to it opening up politically. The regime agreed to embark on the path of democracy in 2011. In 2014, Myanmar assumed the ASEAN chair for the first time.

ASEAN’s patient constructive engagement with the brutal regime in Myanmar paid off.

Read also: Will Indonesia’s diplomacy solve Myanmar crisis?

While diplomacy takes time to work its way through, this should be pursued in conjunction with all other efforts to change the situation on the ground.

Minister Retno in her shuttle diplomacy was criticized for meeting with a representative of the junta, a move many said amounted to a recognition of the military rule. Ideally, she should also be talking to representatives of the November election winners, but this would only be possible with the permission of the junta, the current de-facto but not de-jure rulers.

ASEAN members have a huge stake in ending the Myanmar crisis. A politically unstable Myanmar would affect the security and stability of the region. A weak Myanmar could turn it into an arena for the emerging hegemonic contests we currently see in Asia. Before we know it, Southeast Asia could turn into a zone of conflicts the way it was before ASEAN came into being in 1967.

With all the limitations, ASEAN and Indonesia have an obligation and an interest to help resolve the Myanmar crisis. While most of the rest of the world condemn the junta and support punishing it through sanctions, someone has to play the role of the good cop and give diplomacy a chance to work.

***

Senior editor at The Jakarta Post

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