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Jokowi shores up power base
President now has support of 82 percent of House of Representatives
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day after the country passed the 4-million COVID-19 cases mark on Aug. 24, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo gathered the executives of six ruling coalition parties at the State Palace to introduce the National Mandate Party (PAN), a party with strong support among urban Muslims, as a “new best friend” of the government.
On Wednesday, Jokowi held another political meeting at his office, this time with the smaller members of the coalition that have no seats in the House of Representatives.
The two meetings, analysts say, indicate the President’s attempt to consolidate his power as he grapples to contain the fallout of the health crisis that has derailed his signature projects and taken a toll on his approval ratings, and to ensure the loyalty of his coalition parties, which have begun to gear up for the 2024 general elections.
With PAN officially joining the ruling coalition, Jokowi, whose popularity dropped from above 70 percent at the beginning of the pandemic to below 60 percent last month, has now secured the support of 82 percent of members of the House, leaving only the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) as the opposition.
Despite being perceived as a political “outsider”, the former Surakarta, Central Java, mayor currently has a far bigger coalition than that of his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who held the support of 76 percent of House members after securing his second term.
‘Curse of the second term’
Analysts said that the presence of PAN’s leaders in the coalition meeting at the State Palace signaled the possibility that the Muslim-based party would be joining the Cabinet in the upcoming reshuffle, which is believed to be imminent.
“Adding PAN to the coalition would help increase the coalition power to keep the remaining items of Jokowi’s agenda running smoothly,” Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) executive director Djayadi Hanan told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday.
Since Zulkifli Hasan assanwas re-elected as chairman of PAN for the 2020-2025 period at the fifth PAN congress held in Kendari City, Southeast Sulawesi, on Feb. 11, 2020, PAN has expressed support for the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin government, but it was not given a ministerial seat in the current Cabinet.
The President may now reserve a Cabinet seat for PAN, analysts say.
“Jokowi is anxious about the curse of the second term,” said Adi Prayitno, a political analyst of the Jakarta State Islamic University, when asked about Jokowi’s decision to include PAN into the ruling coalition, a move that could alienate other coalition parties.
Presidents in their second term faced at least two major problems, Adi said.
“First, their coalition parties no longer focus on helping the president and instead spend their energy on preparing for the next election; second, an internal opposition critical of the president can emerge from the coalition,” he said. “This is already happening, so Jokowi is trying to ensure there is at least one party that totally supports him. Psychologically, the President is uncomfortable with criticism from within the coalition.”
PAN declined to comment on the possibility of filling any Cabinet seat. "With regard to PAN's position in the Cabinet, that will come after PAN officially becomes [part of] the government coalition,” Viva Yoga told the Post on Friday.
2024 distractions
In the past few months, the President has relied on members of his inner circle to address the pandemic as political parties set their eyes on 2024.
“Parties can no longer focus on supporting Jokowi’s programs. They are busy instead with their own political agendas in preparation for the 2024 elections,” Djayadi said.
Most of the politicians starting their campaigns early are part of the ruling coalition. They include Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto of the Golkar Party, House Speaker Puan Maharani of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Muhaimin Iskandar, leader of the National Awakening Party (PKB).
Billboard campaigns bearing the faces of Airlangga and Puan are becoming more ubiquitous in many public places across the country, drawing criticism from civil society groups given that the country has yet to get out of the pandemic woods.
Critics, for example, have leveled their criticism at Airlangga, saying that as the government official tasked with leading the national COVID-19 task force, he should be focusing his attention to the pandemic rather than the election.
Puan, meanwhile, has made several statements critical of the government’s handling of the pandemic, even though Jokowi is a PDI-P member.
Safeguarding legacy
Analysts say that it is likely that Jokowi is trying to ensure that he leaves a meaningful legacy before ending his term, arguing that the pandemic and a potential fracturing of his ruling coalition have subverted his political ambitions.
Communications and Information Minister Johnny Plate, who is also the secretary-general of the NasDem Party, has told the media that there were five points of discussion in the meeting.
Among them was the new capital development plan, which will be continued through the preparation of primary legislation in the form of the state capital bill, which will begin to be discussed together with the House.
“The schedule for the capital’s development plan will be adjusted as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” he said.
Relocating the capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan is Jokowi’s most ambitious project as he attempts to bring the nation’s political center out of Java, the most densely populated island that hosts more than half of the nation’s electorate.
However, with the Delta variant now spreading across the sprawling archipelago, analysts have said that it is becoming less likely that Jokowi can realize his plan to begin the capital move before the end of his tenure in 2024.
Meanwhile, the 1945 Constitution bars the incumbent from running for a third term. The General Elections Commission (KPU) recently said the next presidential election is set for February 2024.
Constitutional amendment
Speculation, however, is rife that the party leaders were asked for their thoughts and opinions regarding the proposed amendment to the Constitution in the meeting.
People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Bambang Soesatyo has called for an amendment of the Constitution to introduce so-called state policy outlines (PPHN) to guide national development over the next 50 to 100 years, which are reminiscent of the state policy guidelines (GBHN) of the New Order era. Other parties, however, have called for more wide-ranging revisions to the Constitution.
A group of Jokowi’s supporters, for instance, is calling for an amendment to allow Jokowi to seek another term or extend his current term because of the pandemic. The President has rejected the proposal, but the campaign for it continues and the inclusion of PAN in the ruling coalition has further sparked speculation.
That said, it would not be easy for any party to push for an amendment. The constitutional provisions stipulate that amendments to the Constitution can only be carried out if approved by half plus one of the total 711 members of the MPR, consisting of 575 members of the House and 136 members of the Regional Representative Council (DPD).
Parties who attended the meeting last week have also denied that there was any discussion on the constitutional amendment during the meeting. “There was no discussion regarding the amendment,” Viva told the Post on Friday. (ahw)
