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Jokowi set to play an unexpected global role as peacebroker

Having little interest in complicated diplomacies, Jokowi originally wanted to ensure that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would not be damaging to the Group of 20 Summit and his G20 presidency.

Kornelius Purba (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Mon, June 20, 2022

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Jokowi set to play an unexpected global role as peacebroker
G20 Indonesia 2022

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is scheduled to unveil details of his upcoming trip to Germany, Russia and Ukraine after a meeting on Monday with Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi, who has just returned from an outing overseas, including to Europe.

A top government official told me over the weekend that the President was set to announce his European agenda after chairing a limited Cabinet meeting. Next week, he will be on a United Nations mission to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to, among other things, allow Ukraine to export the globally needed wheat amid the ongoing war between the two countries. And of course, Jokowi will talk with Putin about the Group of 20 Summit Indonesia will host in Bali.

On June 14, Russian state news agency TASS quoted a Kremlin source as reporting about Jokowi’s visit to Moscow. Indonesian government officials privately confirmed the plan but declined to elaborate because President Jokowi himself will discuss the trip.

Preparations are being finalized by Indonesian and Russian authorities, including security arrangements when President Jokowi goes ahead with his plan to visit Ukraine.

President Jokowi may have never expected the UN to ask him to play a global role, especially in brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine. Having little interest in complicated diplomacies, Jokowi originally simply wanted to ensure that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would not be damaging to the G20 Summit and his G20 presidency.

But with the UN, and perhaps the world, calling for his help, is his Russian trip just a coincidence or a perfectly planned scenario? Jokowi may also receive his “karma” because he has to do something he originally did not want to.

Again, knowing about his fondness to surprise the public with his unpredictable decisions, Jokowi may plan to fly from Moscow to Kyiv on board the presidential aircraft or a chartered Garuda plane to demonstrate his credibility as a global leader. It perhaps is similar to the visit of then-president Soeharto to war-torn Bosnia Herzegovina capital Sarajevo on March 13, 1995, only two days after a UN plane was shot down there.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed six world leaders, including President Jokowi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, as members of the Champion Group of UN Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG) in April.

The group was set up in response to the hunger crisis resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two countries produce more than half of the world’s supply of sunflower oil and about 30 percent of the world’s wheat.

The GCRG, chaired by Guterres, will help “decisionmakers to mobilize solutions and develop strategies to help countries address the interlinked crisis with food, energy, and finance”.

President Jokowi and his entourage are slated to depart from Jakarta to Germany on Friday to attend the Group of Seven summit as a guest. Visiting German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier personally submitted a letter of invitation from Chancellor Scholz for President Jokowi to attend the Group of Seven summit in the Bavarian Alps on June 26-27 in his capacity as president of the G20.

In a joint press conference with his German guest, Jokowi appealed “to strengthen cooperation on the handling of the impacts of the war in Ukraine, especially in the food and energy sectors” without explicitly mentioning Russia.

During the G7 summit, Jokowi plans to hold talks in person with the G7 leaders, especially United States President Joe Biden, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British PM Boris Johnson, who all have openly opposed the attendance of Putin at the G20 Summit.

They have reportedly softened their threat to boycott the G20 meeting after newly elected Australian PM Anthony Albanese assured Jokowi of his presence in the annual gathering unconditionally.

Biden will likely come to Bali, too, but his attendance at the ASEAN Regional Forum — to be held at about the same time as G20 Summit — may give him an excuse to skip the Bali gathering.

Deutsche Welle news agency, however, reported that Germany also opposed the Putin boycott plan.

"When a member of the G20 wants to destroy another country in this world with bombs, we cannot simply pretend that nothing happened and return to political business as usual," said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock last week. "But to exclude Russia from the G20, we need all of the other [Group of 19] countries on board."

Jokowi had communicated with Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in April and invited them to come to the Bali summit.

Jokowi has two missions in Moscow and Kyiv. As a UN envoy, Jokowi is mandated to persuade Putin to allow the use of the Moscow-controlled Odessa Port for food exports from Ukraine. Jokowi has a chance to win the trust of Putin because although Indonesia condemned the invasion, Indonesia does not support the boycott of Russia. Jokowi has also built a personal relationship with the Russian leader.

Apart from bilateral issues, Jokowi will also reiterate his invitation for Putin to come to Bali. However, it is unlikely Putin will take the risk of leaving Russia if the war prolongs because it can create a “power vacuum” in the Kremlin.

As a Javanese, Jokowi is a master in arranging “face-saving” measures. Jokowi can orchestrate a special state visit for Putin before or after the G20 Summit. In Germany, Jokowi has the chance to convince G7 leaders he could resolve the Putin factor and, therefore, they would have no more excuses to boycott the G20 Summit.

Will President Jokowi accomplish his mission? Nobody knows because the problem is too complicated to settle. But at least we hope he will be able to convince Putin to open Odessa Port for humanitarian reasons. We should also remain optimistic the G20 summit will run as planned.

We are waiting for a positive result from the unexpected role Jokowi will play as a global peacemaker.

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The writer is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post.

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