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Opposition parties look to ruling coalition for 2024
NasDem may team up with PKS, Democrats.
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hen the National Mandate Party (PAN) officially joined the ruling government coalition with the appointment of its chairman, Zulkifli Hasan, as trade minister in the latest Cabinet reshuffle of the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo administration earlier this month, the opposition camp was already in tatters.
Controlling only about 23 percent of the total seats in the House of Representatives, the opposition camp — PAN, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party (PD) — was never able to pull enough support to mount a challenge against Jokowi’s key policies. The Cabinet shake-up — potentially Jokowi’s last — will not tip the balance of power between government and non-government parties at the legislative body.
The President’s latest move, however, has constrained the opposition leaders in another way: It deprives them of the needed vote to pass the presidential threshold to contest the next election. The Constitution states that a party or a group of parties must have at least 20 percent of the House seats to nominate a president, while PKS and PD, with PAN in the ruling coalition, now only have 16 percent of seats combined.
The two remaining opposition parties are now left with no choice but to form an alliance with at least one member of the ruling coalition to contest the 2024 election, and the NasDem Party, at least for the time being, is their best bet.
‘Third axis’
PKS and PD have approached the Gerindra Party and the NasDem Party — the third and fourth-largest parties in the ruling coalition – for potential cooperation in 2024. Of the two parties, the latter is the likely partner for the opposition, according to analysts.
On Thursday, Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono held a closed-door meeting with NasDem chairman Surya Paloh to further discuss cooperation in the upcoming elections. It was their third meeting this year.
The meeting took place only a week after NasDem officially announced that it would nominate either Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo or Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gen. Andika Perkasa — none of whom are party flag bearers — as its presidential candidate.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Surya said there was a high chance for the two parties to form a coalition as both NasDem and Democratic Party had good chemistry.
"The possibility for a [coalition] exists. It’s just not today, but the possibility exists and is high enough.”
Read also: NasDem names Anies, Andika, Ganjar key nominees for 2024 presidential race
A day earlier on Wednesday, PKS chairman Ahmad Syaikhu paid a courtesy visit to Surya. The meeting resulted in an agreement between the two parties to "jointly agreed to prepare for the 2024 presidential election cooperation within a specific time frame.”
"PKS will produce a third axis because we do not want [the election to be a] two-horse race," PKS secretary-general Aboe Bakar Alhabsyi told reporters after the meeting.
Anies factor
While there is no formal agreement between the NasDem, PKS and PD, it appears that they are united by their apparent inclination to nominate Anies for 2024.
Anies, a cofounder of the National Democrat organization, a precursor of NasDem, is the most popular presidential hopeful among the party’s executives, securing the support of 32 of its’s 34 regional bodies. He is also widely popular among PKS voters, who may have lost their confidence in Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto, now a Cabinet member. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is open to endorsing the Jakarta governor.
On the day Agus met with Surya, his father, former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, welcomed his former vice president, Jusuf Kalla, at Yudhoyono’s residence in Cikeas, Bogor, West Java. Kalla is known as a long-time ally of Anies and reportedly played a key role in paving the way for the latter to contest the 2017 Jakarta election. Their meeting has fueled speculation of a potential pairing of Anies and Agus Yudhoyono, also known as AHY.
PKS said it was aware of its capacity and would not hesitate to endorse non-party figures such as Anies. "I hope that if possible, three months or two months before [registration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates], PKS will be able to figure this out. Regarding the announcements, [it is] another matter," he said.
SBY, Surya, Kalla
Political analysts say that a slew of high-level meetings involving NasDem, PKS and PD was a strong indication of a potential new political axis ahead of the 2024 election with Anies as its presidential contender. Nominating Anies would be a strategic and wise choice, according to Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO) director Dedi Kurnia Syah.
"It is an uphill battle to win the hearts of Jokowi's niche supporters if they nominate Anies, so it was wiser for NasDem to choose Anies as the antithesis of Jokowi's figure instead,” he said.
The Anies-Agus ticket would prove competitive in the election, he claimed, adding that “even if an Anies-AHY pair didn’t win, they would not be an easy opponent to beat”.
Read also: Three-horse race takes shape for 2024 presidential election
That being said, the coalition may choose to pair Anies with another figure if Agus is considered to be dragging down Anies popularity, said Parameter Politik executive director Adi Prayitno.
"The Dems and SBY would eventually succumb [to the pressures of their coalition partners] as their main goal is to secure a victory,” he said.
But electability aside, Dedi said, the NasDem-PKS-PD alliance would be backed by a strong political machine, particularly one that was built by a network of strong political figures – such as SBY, Surya and Kalla – to nominate the pair. (ahw)
