B

y the end of this month, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa will travel to Myanmar to assess the situation and developments in the country since last year’s general elections.

The visit is crucial for three reasons. First, the visit will take place in a new domestic context in Myanmar. After the elections, the
newly installed government in Myanmar has taken some important measures that, if they continue, will change the country for the better. It has begun releasing prisoners, opening dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, inviting a UN Special Rapporteur to visit the country, halting construction on a controversial dam project and unblocking foreign publications and websites.

Second, Minister Natalegawa’s visit is also related to Myanmar’s request to chair ASEAN in 2014. After agreeing to skip the chairmanship in 2006 on ASEAN’s request, the new government in Nyapidaw seems to think that now is the time for the country to reclaim its rights in the regional grouping. Minister Natalegawa’s visit could determine whether it was time for ASEAN to grant that request.

Third, the visit will take place in the context of the rising expectations about the nature and future of democratic developments in the country. There is still ongoing debate whether the new developments really represent progress in Myanmar’s implementation of its own roadmap to democracy, or just a series of calculated steps designed to achieve certain short-term objectives, such as the chairmanship of ASEAN. In other words, there are worries that after the request to chair ASEAN is granted, Myanmar will soon backtrack and reverse all the promising measures that it has begun.

For Indonesia, both as the chair of ASEAN and a regional champion of democracy, the Myanmar question presents a difficult policy choice. On the one hand, current developments provide an opportunity for Indonesia and ASEAN to embrace Myanmar and encourage further reforms in the country. This, among other things, can be achieved by granting Myanmar the ASEAN chairmanship it seeks for 2014. On the other hand, however, if Myanmar started to reverse the reform process after its request was granted, it would become a major diplomatic embarrassment for Indonesia and ASEAN. In this context, ASEAN also must consider how the international community might react.

The key issue here is the uncertainty regarding the nature and the future of democratic reform in Myanmar; a creative formula is needed by ASEAN. Developments in Myanmar need greater recognition from ASEAN and the international community. ASEAN, therefore, needs to give the benefit of the doubt to its problematic member. While granting the ASEAN chairmanship might open up greater opportunity for ASEAN’s engagement in facilitating further reforms, denying it will definitely increase the pressure on the current Myanmar government to roll back the reforms.

Therefore, ASEAN needs to decide at the upcoming ASEAN Summit in November in Bali that in principle it will allow Myanmar to take up the ASEAN chairmanship by 2014. That decision, however, should not be a blank-check. It should be tied to a number of conditions.

First, Myanmar must continue to demonstrate that it is committed to further reforms and opening up the country. At the same time, ASEAN should make it clear that if it is not satisfied with the progress, and its decision to allow Myanmar to chair ASEAN will be reviewed at the July Summit in Phnom Penh next year.

Second, as chair of ASEAN, Myanmar should guarantee other ASEAN countries that it will continue the practices of previous chairs, especially Indonesia, to allow greater participation of civil society organizations in the ASEAN process. More specifically, Myanmar must facilitate and organize the Civil Society Conference (CSC) in Yangon in 2012.

Third, Indonesia should make it clear that it is more than happy to work with and assist Myanmar not only in preparing its chairmanship but also in assisting the country in a more comprehensive manner. For example, Indonesia — both the government and civil society groups — can work with Myanmar to help strengthen the institutional capacity of Myanmar to organize a series of high-level meetings associated with its chairmanship of ASEAN, exchanging experience in economic development and political reforms. Indonesia and Myanmar can also work closely to support community development, second-track dialogues and parliamentary and inter-university exchanges.

Further reforms in Myanmar will benefit not only the country but also ASEAN and the region. The opportunity is now there for ASEAN to seize. ASEAN can provide valuable support in the process. Therefore, it is time for ASEAN to embrace Myanmar again in a comprehensive manner. Myanmar, however, should also make it clear that this time it has no intention of embarrassing ASEAN.

The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta.