The government’s goal to supply 23 percent of the national energy mix from renewable sources by 2025 may fall short if extraordinary measures are not taken, especially amid the latest subsidy cut.

To attain the target, the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN) stipulates that renewable energy must make up at least 11 percent of the energy mix by 2018, amounting to the energy represented by 25.5 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe). In a more conservative tone, the National Energy Board (DEN) predicted a 7 percent figure, even by assuming that the business “runs as usual”.

Unfortunately, data provided by DEN shows that only 8.8 gigawatts (GW) of electricity was procured from renewable energy sources as of October and only 2.1 mtoe of non-electricity energy from renewable sources was used in the current energy mix.

The same data predicted that only 300 megawatts (MW) of additional electricity and 1.5 mtoe of non-electrical energy will come from renewable sources by December next year, far below the target of 10.6 GW of electricity and 10.9 mtoe of non-electrical energy.

Looking at the slow progress, Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) executive director Fabby Tumiwa said that DEN was being overly optimistic in light of the sluggish efforts shown by all stakeholders. He argued the government was too reliant on its state-owned electricity firm PLN, when it could be putting more effort into enticing the participation of private entities.

Furthermore, Fabby criticized PLN for being reluctant to use feed-in tariffs to purchase electricity produced by renewable sources operated by private citizens. “I think 11 percent is too optimistic. [Renewable energy] will probably only make up 10 percent by 2019,” he told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

Things get even worse as the industry saw massive cuts in the relevant budget allocations, which were mostly allotted to plug any price gap between renewable sources and conventional sources next year.

The government had originally proposed Rp 1.2 trillion (US$89.8 million) in subsidies for next year to cover the price gap that PLN would bear. However, it was rejected by the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar), arguing that PLN, as a corporation, could not be subsidized.

Furthermore, the new and renewable energy directorate general’s budget was cut by Rp 900 billion because of unexpected tax shortfalls this year.

Responding to the budget challenge, Energy and Mineral Resources deputy minister Arcandra Tahar reiterated his commitment to the country’s renewable resources, saying that renewable energy development “is a must”.

DEN member A. Sonny Keraf stated that all was not lost in the renewable energy budget because during a meeting with the government on Monday, Banggar had agreed to resubmit a proposal to include renewable energy subsidies in the draft of the 2017 revised state budget.

“One of our approved suggestions is to re-propose subsidies for renewable energy in the 2017 state budget. This will force PLN to buy electricity from renewable sources as the price gap will be filled,” Sonny, Indonesia’s environment minister from 1999 to 2001, said during a press conference.

The subsidies are expected to help the government reach the 11 percent new and renewable source target by the end of next year.

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