The persistent steep hikes in fuel and food prices over the past year is a time bomb threatening economic, social and political stability for our populous country of 230 million.

The government should take seriously last week's warning from the National Logistics Agency (Bulog), which manages national rice stocks, that international rice prices have risen steadily due to tight supplies. It suggested larger national stocks should be produced from domestic supply.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization also said international rice prices had skyrocketed to a 20-year high, with the global benchmark rice price (Thai rice) hovering over US$500 per ton.

The surge is mirrored in international price hikes for soybeans, wheat and other cereals. Commodity analysts attribute the steep rice-price rise to higher demand on the back of rapid income growth in the world's most populous nations -- China and India -- and the conversion of farm land to industrial land.

With food alone accounting for more than one third of our consumer price basket and with no signs high fuel prices will fall this year, the situation calls for contingency measures, not only for domestic fuels, but also for securing adequate rice stocks.

Further down the line, a larger national rice stock from domestic production will be required because the availability of sufficient rice at affordable prices means food security. Fortunately, rice harvests will soon begin in many major production areas, although several provinces may see a slight fall in output due to recent floods.

We should further reduce our dependence on imports because tight international supply has forced major exporters, such as Thailand and Vietnam, to consider export restrictions to keep their own domestic markets well-supplied and rice prices stable.

Luckily, Bulog will increase its domestic rice procurement this year to almost 2.5 million tons, as opposed to the average of one million tons in previous years. They will supply subsidized rice to poor families and provide the staple during emergencies, such as natural disasters and crop failure.

However, the problem is our domestic rice surplus has steadily declined to only 1.5- 2 million tons a year. This thin margin makes our domestic rice market vulnerable to supply shocks and may force Bulog to depend more on imports for its stock build up.

Every time a bout of price hikes hits the market, issues of Indonesia's food security resurface.

The fact is, it is almost impossible to achieve and maintain food self-sufficiency if food security means the availability of rice for all people at an affordable price all the time. Because there has been little innovation in rice farming, we cannot expect any significant expansion in domestic rice stocks.

This is the reality the government is yet to recognize. The government seems unwilling to learn from its past mistakes. Concerted efforts in energy diversification, efficiency and conservation should continually be implemented, despite oil-price fluctuations. Likewise, in the food sector, a nation-wide food diversification campaign should be an on-going, supported with fiscal and monetary incentives, technological assistance and expansion services, despite rice-price volatility.

The truth is the drive to improve energy diversification, efficiency and conservation dies down as soon as oil prices to decline. Food diversification also disappears from the government's agenda as soon as rice prices stabilize at an affordable level.

Consequently, as long as rice remains the main staple for the majority of Indonesians, there should be national political consensus on increasing the budget for the Food Security Fund to secure adequate stocks. Without an adequate level of buffer stocks, the domestic market could fall into the hands of traders, who could jack up prices as they like.

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