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Editorial: End of the coalition?
Some of the harshest criticism against President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for raising fuel prices by 30 percent last weekend came from the people we should least expect, at least theoretically: members of his national coalition government
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Some of the harshest criticism against President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for raising fuel prices by 30 percent last weekend came from the people we should least expect, at least theoretically: members of his national coalition government.
How the President and members of the coalition, aptly named Gotong Royong (mutual self-help), deal with this awkward situation will have a strong bearing on the political situation in the country ahead of next year's general elections. The next few weeks could see either the coalition breaking up, or after some backroom dealings, reaffirming its unity at least for a few more months before members go their separate ways for the elections.
The first salvo was fired by the National Awakening Party (PKB) faction under former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, who called for an impeachment process to be initiated against Yudhoyono for increasing fuel prices at a time when the people were already suffering from higher prices of basic foodstuffs.
Then the Islamist United Development Party (PPP) threatened to quit the coalition in the days before the new fuel prices took effect, though it has yet to carry out the threat. Another Islamist party, the Justice Welfare Party (PKS), has announced its plan to start a motion of inquiry (interpellation) in the House of Representatives to take the President to task for his decision to raise fuel prices.
Meanwhile, many elected representatives of Golkar, the largest party and chaired by Vice President Jusuf Kalla, attacked Yudhoyono for being insensitive to the suffering of the people. Being the astute politician, Kalla plays it both ways: publicly defending the President's decision (though he makes it clear it was not his decision) while tolerating, if not privately encouraging, his Golkar politicians taking a shot at the President, not at the government.
Obviously with the national elections less than a year away, a lot of these criticisms are rhetorical political posturing as parties and those aspiring to contest the presidential election position themselves in the wake of this very unpopular but inevitable measure by the President.
Yudhoyono himself is not innocent from trying to use the issue of fuel prices to his political advantage, delaying the increase as long as he could until it became obvious last week that the government could no longer hold on as world oil prices soared to more than $130 a barrel.
So far, with the exception of Gus Dur's PKB, no one is seriously talking about abandoning the coalition. But given that the political fate of the coalition rises and falls together with the fate of the President, don't be surprised if some of them decide to make a hasty exit to save their own necks.
Yudhoyono's reelection chances hinge largely on his economic track record, including his handling of the higher world oil prices, and it's too early to predict how he will get himself out of this really bad situation. We already know the higher fuel prices will trigger double digit inflation and force more people with low income into the poverty bracket, just as they did in 2005 when Yudhoyono affected a 125 percent increase in fuel prices. The 2005 experience showed that direct cash assistance for the poorest of the poor helped alleviate their hardships, but millions of those who are too rich to qualify for help would still be impoverished by the economic slowdown.
Right now, the coalition members seem to be getting away with both staying in the government and reaping the benefits while criticizing the government, or at least the President, at the same time. They have a good reason to stay, as this gives them access to state facilities, including free travel that will certainly be handy ahead of the elections in order to touch base with the electorates. They obviously want to have their cake and eat it too. But as the Javanese would say, it's pamali; you risk poisoning yourself from eating someone else's cake.
Some of the political parties in the coalition must now be calculating the costs and benefits of staying with Yudhoyono in view of the possibility of economic and political turmoil in the months ahead. Kalla in an interview with Tempo last year said he was contemplating quitting his partnership with Yudhoyono three months before the elections (thought he didn't say whether he meant the parliamentary elections in April or the presidential election in June). In view of the latest situation, Kalla and his Golkar, and the other coalition members for that matter, may want to leave earlier or else risk going down with the President, if he does fall from grace.
This is, however, a decision that President Yudhoyono should make, rather than leaving it to the whims of his partners. Obviously, the coalition's slogan, "Together We Can", is becoming indefensible the closer we get to the elections. He should invoke George W. Bush's famous "You're either with me or against me" quote and tell the coalition partners to make up their mind one way or another.
