Despite an estimated slowdown in Indonesia's economic growth in line with the global economic downturn, the nation's retailers may still enjoy at least a 10 percent increase next year, says a retail association.

The Indonesian Retail Merchants Association (APRINDO) said a cut in sales revenue growth was inevitable amid the current adverse global economic condition.

"But knowing that people always buy food whether the economy goes up or down, then a growth of at least 10 percent is certain," APRINDO secretary general Rudy R.J. Sumampouw said recently.

At a time when many of the country's industries -- in particular export-oriented ones -- are struggling to cope with a weakening demand, a 10 percent growth in sales will still be good, although it will be slower than this year's estimated growth of 15 percent, he said.

"Even the 15 percent growth this year was lower than the initial projection of 20 percent," Rudy said, adding that by the end of this year, retail sales involving APRINDO's members would reach about Rp 74.5 trillion (US$6.7 billion) up from Rp 65 trillion in 2007.

Sales from APRINDO's members contribute about 20 percent to retail sales nationwide, he said.

"So far this year there have been no reports of layoffs or store closures from our members. In fact, since 2007, retail stores have been growing around 15 percent," Rudy said. In 2007, the retail industry absorbed about one million workers.

This year, APRINDO's 300 members have at least 7,500 stores nationally. It has five store formats: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, minimarkets, department stores and specialty stores such as single-brand outlets.

About 100 of them are hypermarkets such as Giant, Carrefour, Makro, Hypermart and Alfa Gudang Rabat, and 30 percent of them are centered in Jakarta, he said.

He said that for next year's projection, growth of new stores could be slower. "With the coming elections, much will depend on next year's political conditions," he said.

"This global crisis means some of our members have taken preventive measures such as postponing expansion plans; outlet development has been reduced by 30 percent."

Dandy Herlandy, executive secretary for the Jakarta chapter of the Indonesian Shopping Centers Association (APPBI), said that between 2007 and 2008 the number of malls had grown from 65 to 75 in Greater Jakarta.

Noel Trinder, CEO of retail giant Matahari Putra Prima, said its Matahari Department Stores would open three to five new outlets next year, while its Hypermart will open six to eight in 2009.

Matahari Department Stores has already opened five new stores this year. "We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for next year," he said.

Matahari Group has nine core retail businesses, including Matahari Department Store, Hypermart and Foodmart. This year's group sales will be between Rp 11.5 trillion and Rp 11.7 trillion, he said. (iwp)

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