When Napoleon Bonaparte proclaimed himself emperor in 1804, Ludwig van Beethoven ranted: “So he is no more than a common mortal!” The unwelcome news prompted the German composer to abandon the plan of making his third symphony a musical monument to Napoleon. In a fit of anger, he tore up the title page of the score, on which the Corsican’s name had been inscribed.

Many leaders forgo the chance of attaining true greatness -- and the prospect of being immortalized by meritorious admirers -- by going too far. To avoid blotting their copybook, men of premier rank must master the art of what I call “smart moderation”.

Empathically, I do not advocate unconditional restraint. I am not touting trifling objectives that can be easily attained. Nor do I recommend constantly trying to please everybody and routinely opting for compromises. This truth is worthy of acceptance: Great things in the world are achieved by high-spirited heroes who are inspired by an enthralling dream and pursue it wholeheartedly! High achievers ever and anon go against the grain, stretching themselves and others to reach their destination.

But smartness prompts a mover and shaker to stop at the right time, before all gains evaporate. If he survives by applying the brakes before colliding with a roadblock, he still can either resume his mission at a different point of time or entrust subsequent generations with putting the finishing touches on his work. When his empire crumbles though, he has to start from scratch, if this is still possible.

To operate in the sweet spot where you fulfill your potential but do not overstretch, you must heed the following advice.

Visualize the consequences of extremism and poise

To cultivate a spirit of humility and temperance, you should call to mind the failures of extremists in all fields of human endeavor, possibly including your own losses stemming from excesses. Even though many leaders love to surround themselves with uplifting motivational displays of greatness, I recommend what I call a “cathartic notice board”. It illustrates the dire consequences of “untempered propulsion”, serving as a sobering reminder that purifies overambitious and agitated souls. For example, rulers may place a copy of the famous painting by the German Adolf Northern on their desk, depicting the grim-looking Napoleon among his beaten soldiers retreating from Moscow in 1812 (see illustration). The emperor, who later callously abandoned his decimated and disheartened troops, remarked laconically: “The French showed themselves to be worthy of victory, but the Russians showed themselves worthy of being invincible”.

At the same time, the high and mighty should constantly edify themselves with the fine examples of those who used the golden mean principle appositely and succeeded as a result. For instance, during the Gulf War (1990-1991), then US President George H. W. Bush did not order troops to conquer Baghdad after they had driven Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. If he had pressed on, he would have gone beyond the mandate that he had obtained from the United Nations and might have met disaster.

Use strategic calculus

Little children craving something sweet often try to stuff a whole piece of cake in their mouth and choke as a result. Many leaders are no better at reining in their impulses and start parlous multi-front wars. Instead, they should break a master plan into self-contained and manageable action scripts, which can be executed sequentially if necessary. The powers that be must lay a solid foundation and ensure that the whole mission does not fail when a single measure goes awry. They should build a granite tower on rocks instead of a house of cards on treacherous quicksand.

What really works in practice cannot be established through deductive reasoning alone. The guiding spirit needs to engage in marginal thinking and calculate probabilities, in increments feeling his way toward an empirically determined equilibrium. To decide whether to progress, a leader must resort to what I call “strategic calculus”: He should only continue on a path if the additional benefits of the next move outweigh the attendant extra costs. In many cases, he can arrive at estimates of these values by conducting pilot tests. Irrecoverable expenses are not to be considered in this differential analysis, which focuses on the future. Prime movers should not keep pouring money into the development of a product just because they have already heavily invested in it.

Perform probabilistic analyses

Nuanced and probabilistic thinking is well-entrenched in science. Yet instead of systematically moving along a mental continuum, many rulers stubbornly use binary scales, classifying measures simply as either “fantastic” or “horrible” in an extemporaneous manner. A torch-bearer must be honest and assess the likelihood of prospective gains, which, to his dismay, he may find out to be low. At the same time, he must calculate the probability of undesirable outcomes. Even many innovations that are scientifically validated do not merit unconditional approval. For example, numerous drugs have been approved even though experiments established a residual likelihood of complications occurring. Doctors therefore need to exercise caution when deciding whether to prescribe such ­medicine.

Prudent commanders also must consider the maximum damage of a move they are pondering. It is of paramount importance to imagine unlikely negative super-events. For example, if the worst outcome is the destruction of your company, the “maximum damage coefficient” is non-trivial even if the likelihood of such an event is comparatively low.

Headmen should not bank on unlikely maximum gain though. To curb exuberant optimism, I often ask leaders how they assess the following behavior: A man buys a national lottery ticket and immediately afterwards signs a purchasing contract for a splendid castle, firmly believing that he will gain the first prize in the draw.

Finally, before leaders actually take action, they must consider the end game, hedge their bets, and design exit strategies. They should piece together a diversified set of options, create buffer space, and put in place safety ropes.

Smart moderation is an invaluable leadership virtue. He who knows how to find the sweet spot of poised excellence will be richly rewarded; the reckless, who blindly press on with hazardous campaigns, can only hope for a marvelous rescue, which, alas, is as rare as it is astonishing.

(To be continued)

Kai-Alexander Schlevogt (D.Phil. Oxford) is a professor of strategy and leadership at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School and author of The Art of Chinese Management (Oxford University Press).Email: schlevogt@schlevogt.com;website: www.schlevogt.com

Popular

Kadin urges stability after Constitutional Court ruling

Jokowi says transition to new government to begi

BCA loan disbursement surges 17.1 percent yoy in first quarter