T

he global financial crisis is likely to put more pressure on Southeast Asia's shaky social stability in a region with fragile democracies and a history of tumultuous political transitions, say regional experts.

Major economies in the robust region have slipped into crisis when hit by export downturns rising jobless numbers. Countries on steadier democratic footing such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand could be among the first to suffer if social upheaval sparks prolonged protests demanding government take swift measures to weather the crisis.

Police have warned that protesters might turn violent during rallies over economic hardship. Discontent could aggravate electoral processes and threaten political transitions. Indonesia will hold its parliamentary elections in April and presidential elections in July; Thailand is gearing up for yet another wave of antigovernment protests which have already sent adverse impacts rumbling through the business sector; Malaysia is facing its own political saga with the hostilities between the ruling party UMNO and the opposition coalition not likely to end any time soon.

Indonesia's National Police chief said they had beefed up security for this year to brace for the worst with the combination of election campaigns and economic distress. "We are ready to safeguard the general elections in the upcoming year, including evading potential threats from unavoidable layoff schemes that may come as a result from the world economic crisis," said Jakarta Police chief Insp. Gen. Wahyono recently.

Indonesia is bracing for mass layoffs with the Manpower and Transmigration Ministry expecting early number to reach 40,000. The Philippines reports 19,443 workers at home and another 4,000 overseas have lost their jobs since last October. The Philippine Labor secretary Marianito Roque was quoted by the Philippine Daily Inquirer as saying up to 60,000 Filipinos could lose their jobs this year, mainly in the electronics and garments industry. The situation will likely worsen as many laid-off workers have vowed to push for severance compensation from the failing companies. Kuala Lumpur has said more than 10,000 Malaysian have lost their jobs, mostly in manufacturing sectors, since January.

In Bangkok, Industry Minister Chanchai Chairungruang said tens of thousands of Thai autoworkers would be at risk of losing their jobs if the government rescue package, including tax cuts and soft loans for the vehicle makers, did not roll out immediately.

The Mekong delta countries of Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam are also looking at tough times as slowing foreign investments put more pressure in that newly developing region. Vietnam, which has seen fast growth in the last few years, has suffered from a 25 percent slowdown in exports recently.

Chalidaporn Songsamphan, a political scientist at Thammasat University in Thailand, said the threat of social upheaval would vary among Southeast Asian nations as there were differences in the rate of government reforms and in the degree of crackdowns on protests.

Cultural factors also should play a significant role in determining the way civil society reacts to the situation," she said.

Potential upheavals in military-ruled Myanmar and communist Vietnam and Laos might seem less imminent since authoritarian leadership may immediately crack down on public protests without having to worry about violating rights of freedom of expression and assembly.

In Thailand, Chalidaporn said the tensions might reach the breaking point since Thais have been enduring social tensions since political reforms in the 1990s followed by the 1997 economic crisis. "We have seen the current antigovernment rallies in Bangkok and at some point they may erupt into violence if people feel they are pushed to the edge of endurance," she said.

Bantarto Bandoro, an analyst with the University of Indonesia, pointed out the chance that riots in some major cities could well occur, similar to those that broke out in 1998 when the country was likewise facing economic hardship and political uncertainty.