T

he upcoming Thai elections are only days away. Pheu Thai Party’s Yingluck Shinawatra is ahead in the polls and the military has just, not so subtly, nudged its support in the direction of the Democratic Party.

Whilst a repetition of the 2006 coup d’état is far from imminent, the implications of a recurrence of such an event would not only affect Thailand, who has the second largest economy in the region, but the ASEAN region as a whole, experts agreed here on Monday.

State Islamic University ASEAN expert Mutiara Pertiwi said that while Thailand used to be one of the most progressive members and sources of initiative to develop human security, stability, prosperity and democracy in the region, recently the country has been increasingly hesitant in choosing democratic ways.

Her 2009 research showed that the three most democratic nations in the ASEAN region were Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which were “the hope for progress in the region”. However, presently the Philippines has focused domestic policy on the South China Sea and Thailand appears to have internal democracy issues to attend to, leaving Indonesia “pushing the agenda by itself”.

Mutiara continues that in a “soft community such as ASEAN, if one of the members is interrupted domestically, it will influence the overall performance of the region”.

With a less than impressive record of 18 attempted military coups since 1932, there is no question the world will be watching the Thailand election and the aftermath of the results following the July 3 election. ASEAN, of course, will be especially interested in the developments of one of its members.

“It will give a bad impression before the international community that Thailand is moving on a dangerous path, which could effect many sectors in Thailand, as well as the region,” said Parahyangan University international relations expert Bantarto Bandaro in Bandung, adding that the focus of other member ASEAN countries would be to observe that everything runs smoothly in order to avoid adverse shocks to the regional economy.

If unfortunate circumstances should occur, however, there is very little that may be done by other ASEAN members in response, other than sit calmly and closely watch events as they unfold, he said.

One of the cornerstones of the “ASEAN-way” revolves around non-interference policies and a mutual respect for the sovereignty of other member states, particularly in regard to domestic affairs.

“That is the weakness of ASEAN. If something happens in a member country, [other members] cannot do anything other than watch it develop,” said Bantarto when discussing the limitations of this type of regionalism. “ASEAN will not be seen as a mature community until it becomes a full-fledged single community in 2015, similar to that of the EU.”

Mutiara added that by criticizing other member’s domestic policies at this point, the only thing that would be achieved was disruption of harmony in the region.

ASEAN 2015 goals include a community based on the pillars of the economy, security, and sociocultural priorities that aim to leave behind the traditional preventive diplomacy in order to help the region retain relevance on an international level.

If the election in Thailand results in yet another coup, it could derail the commitment to reaching these goals by 2015 because of the partial loss of focus from one of the largest members of the collective community.