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ower production of Indonesian key crops this year coupled with a global rice shortage may threaten food security and boost prices, as the country counters the impact of the global economic slowdown.

Economists urged local authorities to strengthen domestic supply so prices and people’s purchasing power in the domestic consumption-reliant economy could remain stable, while imports — especially rice — should be the last resort, given the volatile international prices.

Indonesia’s rice production is forecast to slide 1.63 percent, dropping 1.08 million tons down to 65.39 million tons this year over declines in farmland area and productivity, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Tuesday.

Corn production was also predicted to be down by 5.99 percent, or 1.1 million tons, to 17.23 million tons, as well as soybeans by 4.08 percent, or 36,960 tons, to 870,070 tons — both due to smaller farmland area despite increasing productivity.

“The consequence would be soaring prices. By cycle, prices would increase significantly from November through January, and inflation will be higher because the contribution of volatile food prices to inflation is at 35 percent,” Bustanul Arifin, an economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), said on Wednesday.

The nation’s headline inflation eased to 4.42 percent in October as core inflation dove on sliding gold jewelry prices during the month, but rice, which weighted heavily on the nation’s inflation basket, has begun to pressure the headline inflation, contributing 0.08 percent to consumer prices increase.

National prices of medium rice increased 6.54 percent from a year earlier to Rp 7,951 per kilogram in October, BPS data shows.

“This is affecting our food security. Moreover, external developments are uncontrollable, for instance [flooding in] Thailand affects food supply not only for Indonesia but for the international market,” said Latif Adam, an economist at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).

Thailand’s rice accounted for 38.5 percent of Indonesia’s rice import in the first nine months of this year, standing at 720,232 tons, according to BPS data.

“Amid possibilities of declining international food stocks, the government must be committed to building food security that prioritizes domestic production,” Latif said.

“So far, the concept of food security does account for where the food is from — domestic or foreign. We need to be independent.”

However, the government seems to be relying on imports to offset its shrinking output of crops.

“If production declines but fulfills the consumption needs, it’s OK. Besides, [state logistics agency] Bulog has national rice reserves, and part of the need could be imported to meet demands,” said Finance Ministry fiscal policy office acting chief Bambang Brodjonegoro.

Indonesia’s population of 240 million needs 139 kilograms of rice per capita, while corn and soybean consumption was respectively at 13 million kilograms and 2.4 million kilograms per year.

From January to September this year, the country imported 1.87 million tons rice, 2.77 million tons of corn and 1.51 million tons of soybeans.

“Imports make us reliant on external factors that are uncontrollable, especially with climate anomalies,” Latif said.