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Analysis: Banking more on more Indonesians

It’s official

Debnath Guharoy (The Jakarta Post)
Tue, February 14, 2012

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Analysis: Banking more on more Indonesians

I

t’s official. The Greek parliament has accepted the prescriptions insisted upon by Europe’s finance ministers. For many more millions of middle-class citizens, the pain has just begun. We can now expect thousands of bank accounts to go delinquent or dormant. The continent’s major banks have been stung with recent downgrades by the ratings agencies. The slippery slope beckons. With Germany and France taking the lead in trying to save the euro at any cost, the debate on the currency’s future continues to heat up.

Listening to both camps, for and against the motion, it is easy to see how the world is fundamentally divided between conservatives and liberals, left and right, capitalist and socialist, “us” versus “them”, inclusion versus exclusion. Immersed in the need to survive this financial crisis, most critics of Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy fail to recognise that the European Union, not just the Euro, are big ideas for the future of the human race as a whole. A continent wracked with wars for centuries, with peoples at different stages of evolution, made a brave attempt to build a collective future. An age of peace and prosperity. That process has hit a major bump, not because the idea is flawed but because its execution has been botched. Britain standing aside during this crisis while sending a destroyer to the Falklands says much about “Rule Britannia”, even though the empire is dead.

The rest of us need to get a move on. There is nothing to be achieved by celebrating the misfortunes of others. But a country that has come out stronger from its own economic meltdown not so long ago can use its growing might to influence groupings like ASEAN, APEC, G20 and indeed the United Nations. There is a long way to go before all of humanity acts as one, we are still very primitive in the way we behave. Any move that encourages instability or supports acts of violence, are steps backward. Every time we fail to resolve conflicts and ease tension via dialogue, we slip toward the caveman and his cudgel. Regardless of religious belief or political persuasion, that conclusion is inarguable.

With Europe still in deep freeze both meteorologically and metaphorically, but the US showing signs of recovery, Indonesia can take comfort from the continuing stability of its real economy. All the signs indicate that the domestic “marketplace” will continue to perform better than the financial “market”. Continuing the series of industry reports, this week’s look at the vital financial services sector will add to the confidence in Indonesia’s economic prospects. Those prospects are anchored in the buying and selling of goods and services, across the country, by an ever-growing number of consumers with an appetite for more. Month after month, Indonesia is looking more and more like a good example for other big developing countries to emulate.

In just two years, 2010 and 2011, the number of adult Indonesians with “any financial relationship”, or AFR, has grown from 25 million people to 36 million. That represents a 44 percent jump in just the last two years. Equally remarkable is the reversal of the decline in the number of people with an active account, witnessed from December 2006 to December 2009, triggered by the introduction of minimum balances and higher service fees. At the end of December 2011, 27 percent of adults had a financial relationship, up from 20 percent just 24 months ago. The core relationship is a savings account for most customers, with a small fraction made up by micro-loans as the key. Much of this growth has been enjoyed by the Big 4 banks, but the next six that make up the top 10 are increasing the pressure each month.

Equally reassuring is the demand for more. Some 8 million people are planning to open a savings account in the next 12 months. This is where the action is, what bankers call “mass banking”. This is where banks need to focus more of their resources, energies and ideas. Understandably, foreign banks seem to have a different target. From the airport to downtown Indonesia, the battle for the high-end customer, or “low-hanging fruit”, is visible for all to see. While the numbers of credits cards issued continues to mount, the actual number of people with at least one card has not grown by much. Even today, just 1 percent of adult Indonesians have a credit card. The story is similar for any “investments”, at just 1 percent of adults. The penetration of personal loans has grown from 3 to 5 percent in just two years, but now appears to have hit a plateau. People with insurance have climbed from 2 to 3 percent, steadily over the last 5 years. These numbers are revealing, a measurement of Indonesia’s progressive affluence. Though small, the growth of shariah banking also tells us that religious beliefs and cultural mores deeply influence a section of the country’s large conservative community, increasingly affluent over time.

For the millions of new entrants joining the financial services sector, it is the primary savings account that is the cornerstone of all relationships in the future. Winning these new accounts, developing relationships and cross-selling cards, personal loans, vehicle loans and home mortgages are the real avenues of robust growth. In banking, back to basics is a good idea.

The conclusions are based on Roy Morgan Single Source, the country’s largest syndicated More than 25,000 respondents are interviewed every year, week after week. The data is projected to reflect 87 percent of the population 14 years of age and over.

The writer can be contacted at debnath.guharoy@roymorgan.com

 

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