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Analysis: From BBM to GGM, picture isn’t prettier

Days before the price hike is due to come into effect, the bahan bakar minyak or BBM debate rages on

Debnath Guharoy (The Jakarta Post)
Tue, March 27, 2012

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Analysis: From BBM to GGM, picture isn’t prettier

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ays before the price hike is due to come into effect, the bahan bakar minyak or BBM debate rages on. From a political perspective, the great divide really lies between the populists and the pragmatists. From a people perspective, the pain will inevitably be felt in everyone’s wallet. The impact will directly affect Indonesia’s middle class, about 42 percent of the population, who own a motorized vehicle. For the affluent minority, this is a non-event. But for the overwhelming majority, the cost of living going up across the board as a result of the fuel-price hike will more than pinch. It will punch the bottom-half of all households in the proverbial breadbasket.

Whichever way you look at it, there’s very little that can be done to reduce the pain caused by higher fuel prices. Fuel subsidies have kept prices too low for too long. The situation is unreal and untenable. On the other hand, it is blindingly obvious that bribing the people into a false sense of bliss with subsidized fuel would do little to alter the scores of the GGM, the Good Governance Monitor. There, the situation continues to slide from bad to worse. It’s more a question of “why isn’t what can be done, being done?”

Now, nine out of 10 Indonesians believe “corruption is a major problem affecting this country”. With the trend continuing to creep upward, 100 percent is not too far away. One of these days, even the corruptors are going to agree that corruption is the nation’s biggest social issue. The other side of the same coin is just as ugly. Endemic, corrosive and all-pervasive as it is, any kind of social justice is an impossible dream. It is the primary reason that poverty continues to exist in such large numbers, why the middle class have just about given up. In the days of the old dictator, just a handful in the inner circle made the big bucks. That is why so many people still have good memories of the old Soeharto days, every time such sensitive comparisons are polled. Corruption is now really democratic. It is on the street every day, not just in the office.

Talking of democracy, the idea is still in great shape. A remarkable seven out of 10 Indonesians continue to believe that “democracy is working”. Despite the constant battering from one Gayus followed by another Nazaruddin, the institution remains strong. The free press, aided and abetted by NGOs and activists, are keeping the flames of democracy burning. It could be called a happy addiction, a drug free of charge. Once it becomes a habit, it’s a habit hard to kick. The voters know they are paying the price of callous legislators not doing their jobs, but the next election promises to punish the inept. That hope remains strong among the many we talk with around the country.

Equally remarkable is the high score the SBY government continues to enjoy, despite all the bad press. Even today, six out of 10 Indonesians believe “the government is doing a good job running this country”. Down, but not out. The only explanation for the relatively high approval rating is anecdotal. Most housewives and older men in particular are grateful for the peace and prosperity that they enjoy every day. That can hardly be debated, it really is a case of low expectations. That gratitude transfers positively onto the president himself, still seen by many as a good man surrounded by bad people. But the endless stories of embezzlement are taking their toll. “I don’t trust the current government” has climbed up again, with 44 percent of respondents losing faith.

I would suggest that the real question before the people is not the prospect of higher prices to come, but what will be done with the trillions in savings. The Rp 30 trillion per annum in savings, to be precise. That is an awful lot of money, not just an awful lot of zeroes. It’s easy to raise prices. But it’s a lot harder to build more roads, more railways, more ports, more schools, more hospitals. Badly needed infrastructure would help alleviate the pain, increase productivity, create jobs and improve wages. Does anybody know of a national plan, a provincial plan, a city plan that’s worth the paper it’s written on? If there are indeed such plans, why are they such closely guarded secrets? It would comfort a lot of people to know who is going to do what and when, with all the new money. The fact that much of the old money budgeted for expenditure doesn’t get spent each financial year isn’t reassuring either. It begs the question: Where does all the money go?

Transparency isn’t just a buzzword, it’s a crying necessity for Indonesia today. Simple questions that need simple answers. Like what is the landed price of imported fuel versus all the overheads that finally lead up to the cost-to-consumer at the pump? What’s happening to Indonesia’s vast unexplored reserves of oil and gas? Why aren’t there any refineries for the crude oil produced in the country? What initiatives are being taken to foster renewable energies? If the powers-that-be have answers to these questions, they would do well to share them with the people. It’s what any good government would do, to move on from BBM and improve the scores on GGM.

The Good Governance Monitor is conducted in the Top 21 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. 6,268 men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the October-December quarter of 2011.

The writer can be contacted at debnath.guharoy@roymorgan.com.

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