T

he three ministerial posts belonging to the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) are now in jeopardy as senior members of coalition parties believe the Islamic party will not escape “political punishment” for its repeated “rebellious acts”.

President Susilo Bambang Yu-dhoyono, the chief patron of the Democratic Party, however, is still calculating the political risks he and his party might run should the PKS be kicked out of the government coalition, analysts say.

“We still have to wait for an official statement from Yudhoyono himself as he is the head of the
coalition’s joint secretariat,” Burha-nuddin Muhtadi of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) said on Wednesday.

The three PKS Cabinet ministers are Communications and Information Minister Tifatul Sembiring, Agriculture Minister Suswono and Social Affairs Minister Salim Segaf Al Jufri.

It is thought the President is mulling whether to kick the PKS out of the coalition by removing all three ministers, or keeping the party in the coalition but reducing their allotment of ministries.

Responding to the speculation, Tifatul said that he would be ready for any kind of political change that might affect his future in the Cabinet.

“It’s the President’s prerogative [to change the Cabinet]. As a minister, I have to follow the President’s directives. I’ve never opposed the government. If I am removed from my post, what can I say?” he said.

Cabinet secretary Dipo Alam also hinted that Yudhoyono might reshuffle his Cabinet in the near future. “I‘m telling you that the reshuffle in October 2011 won’t be the last,” he said as quoted by Antara news agency.

Speculation over the PKS’ punishment heightened on Wednesday after Suswono failed to show up for a Cabinet meeting at the Presidential Office. The meeting discussed the recently passed 2012 Revised State Budget. Suswono usually attends any Cabinet meeting discussing economic issues.

Dipo, however, denied there was any political reason behind Suswono’s absence. “Suswono simply wasn’t invited,” he said.

The turmoil within the coalition began after the PKS sided with opposition parties in rejecting the article within the revised 2012 State Budget Law that allows the government to change the price of subsidized fuels should the Indonesian Crude Price rise by 15 percent above the estimated US$105 per barrel within six months.

The revision was approved during a lengthy House of Representatives plenary session on Friday.

On Tuesday night, Yudhoyono also signaled his displeasure with the PKS. Leaders of the party were not invited to a coalition joint secretariat meeting held at Yudhoyono’s residence in Cikeas, West Java.

After the meeting, the secretariat’s secretary, and Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises minister, Syariefuddin Hasan, said the PKS stance opposing the government was a violation of the coalition’s code of conduct.

“Such a violation means that PKS membership of the coalition has ended,” he told reporters. “The coalition now consists of only five political parties.”

Apart from the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN), the other coalition parties are the Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

“We won’t use the term ‘dismiss’ because the coalition contract clearly states that your membership of the coalition ends if you violate the contract,” Syariefuddin said.

Burhanuddin said Yudhoyono was still considering the potential drawbacks of punishing the PKS.

“If the PKS is kicked out of the coalition, the party may gain public sympathy. People may think that the PKS was punished for fighting for the people in rejecting the fuel-price hike,” he said. (tas)