“The only constant thing in life is change,” they say. Really? Looking at the so-called “Arab Spring” and recent events in Egypt, you could have fooled me.

When Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood was sworn in as president in June, thousands flocked to Tahrir Square to celebrate. Waving Egyptian flags, they chanted “God is great” and “Down with military rule”.

Who can blame them? After 60 years of authoritarian military rule, anybody would be ready for a change. Since Egypt became a republic in 1953, it’s been a struggle between the Muslim Brotherhood and a secular, nationalist military-backed government.

For decades, the Muslim Brothers led armed attempts to overthrow that government. They tried to assassinate president Nasser, killed president Anwar Sadat in 1981 and had a go at Mubarak too, but it didn’t get them anywhere.

Now, after being outlawed and systematically repressed for decades, a Muslim Brotherhood man is voted in, fair and square. Yippee, time to sing Kool and the Gang’s “Celebration” song!

Not so fast guys.

Yes, Mursi has been elected president of Egypt. But does he hold the reins of power? The Egyptians elected a new legislature, but the Constitutional Court declared it invalid and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) stepped in instead.

They also took away the president’s authority as supreme commander of the armed forces. This means that Mursi can’t pass laws unless the army agrees and he can’t instruct the army to do anything.

So Mursi is the president of nothing much, really. He’s been elected, sure — sworn in too — but what power does he have? And if things go wrong, he will be the fall guy. Very convenient — for the military that is. Mursi or no Mursi, for all intents and purposes Egypt is not much more than a military junta — unless Mursi confronts them by recalling the legislature, as he is now threatening to do.

What if thousands return to Tahrir Square to protest? That may not worry the generals too much. They know history has made the Muslim Brotherhood very cautious. It will be reluctant to tackle the army head-on, because that would provide the soldiers with an excuse to marginalize or even annihilate them. Sans Mubarak, the old patterns are basically intact.

Having been brought up under 32 years of Soeharto’s authoritarian military rule (1966-1998), I couldn’t help making comparisons with Indonesia. Here it took 12 years for democratization to slow to a stop (and stop it did, two years ago). In Egypt, it happened in the blink of an eye – almost as soon as it started.

But is Indonesia now going to do an Egypt and return to military rule? Well, Prabowo Subianto is ahead in the polls for the 2014 presidential election. As the former Special Forces commander, he was a prominent figure in the Indonesian Military. He is also a self-confessed human rights offender who was denied a visa to the US for contravening the UN Convention against Torture.

Like Egypt — and our regional neighbor Thailand — there is a historical pattern of military intervention in this country. Yes, Indonesia has become more complex now, and an army probably couldn’t manage it easily any more.

But if people believe that democracy is failing, that could create an opening — think about Germany after World War I, when president Paul von Hindenburg appointed Nazi leader Adolf Hitler as chancellor.

Recently, Indonesia made it to the threshold of the Failed State Index. We all know Indonesia isn’t really a failed state — the economy is growing and the state system is intact. So what created this perception of failure?

First, there’s a leadership crisis. People joke that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s initials, SBY, now stand for suka bengong ya (going blank). Because he leads a minority government, he’s often politically paralyzed.

And among the current crop of presidential candidates there is no one the people really like — even Prabowo only has support from less than 11 percent of voters, with the other candidates way behind him (see “Mega, Prabowo, Bakrie all bottom out in new survey”, The Jakarta Post, July 9).

Second, the House of Representatives (DPR) is a disaster because of rampant corruption, which points to a failure of the system. It brings people into power indebted by campaign costs, and puts at their disposal the means to get money, waiting for bribes to pass laws.

This means DPR members attack the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and other reform organizations because they feel threatened.

So they end up becoming opponents of reform, which is what is happening to SBY’s imploding Democratic Party (PD) too. In fact, the PD is a good metaphor for the legislature as a whole – both are beset by corruption and have lost public confidence.

When political change takes place, people assume rapid democratization will follow. In fact, it is very difficult to do well and harder to keep intact. In the Philippines, it unraveled after Cory Aquino (1986-1992), while in Thailand it fell apart with Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006). And Egypt? Well, it hasn’t even got past “Go” in its reform process.

Indonesia needs to watch out too. How much of what reformasi achieved will hold? Egypt is a lesson for Indonesia that democracy is fragile, very vulnerable and liable to vanish when your back is turned.

I think the saying that’s more appropriate for Egypt is “plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose” (the more things change, the more they stay the same). Let’s hope that doesn’t apply to Indonesia as well.

The writer (www.juliasuryakusuma.com) is the author of Jihad Julia.

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