W

hile Egypt teeters on the brink of civil war, many Indonesian commentators have been quick to lament that the largest Arab country has not followed the path that Indonesia went through in transforming itself from a dictatorship into a functioning democracy.

Since both are predominantly large Muslim nations that came out of long authoritarian rule supported by the military, many people made the inevitable comparison between the two and talked about lessons from Indonesia for Egypt.

Indonesia, the country with the world'€™s largest Muslim population, had an early start in 1998 when a popular revolution ended the reign of strongman Soeharto. Egyptians had their day through the 2011 Arab Spring that forced Hosni Mubarak out of power. But while Indonesia survived the political turmoil that constantly threatened to derail reforms and became a stable democracy 15 years later, Egypt failed on the first hurdle.

Egyptians can forget about freedom and democracy now. The military, very much back in the saddle after it ousted president Mohamed Mursi this month, is fighting his Muslim Brotherhood party, the winner of Egypt'€™s first post-Mubarak elections, in the streets.

Egypt could have been Indonesia, so many people would argue. But the reverse is also actually true: Indonesia could have been Egypt.

In fact, Indonesia could still go the Egyptian way. Indonesia has some of the ingredients that have turned Egypt upside down, just as Egypt has some of the elements that brought democracy to Indonesia.

If Indonesia is not careful, it could revert to military rule or an equally autocratic Islamist rule. Worse still, Indonesia could see a civil war between the two groups contesting power, neither of which believes in
democracy except in name.

Indonesia should count its blessing that today it has its democracy that has helped to provide some political stability and allowed steady economic growth and development and therefore greater prosperity.

But one chief lesson it should take from Egypt is that it should take nothing for granted. There is a possibility that Indonesia would see a return to militarism, which Egypt is experiencing today, or hard-line Islamist parties taking power and imposing their ideology against the will of the people, just like the Muslim Brotherhood tried but now stopped by the Egyptian military.

The Indonesian Military (TNI) may have withdrawn from politics but it has a long history, some call it a tradition, of meddling in politics. Like its peers in Egypt Thailand and Pakistan, it will return by invoking the need to safeguard the nation from chaos and disorder, or an from a single power, like Islamism or other ideology, taking power.

The loud public cheers greeting the news of the Army'€™s Special Forces (Kopassus) raiding a jail in Yogyakarta in March and killing what it claimed to be a bunch of notorious gangsters is a strong reminder that militarism still has its supporters in the country. The Kopassus soldiers may be on trial, but to many Indonesians, they were the real heroes.

The failure of the state, in this case the police, in protecting religious minorities against attacks and persecution contrasts sharply to the Soeharto days when they were able to practice their faith and build their places of worship in peace. Then, the military would have none of this and quickly clamp down on religious radicalism.

Indonesia is in no immediate danger of ceding power to Islamist parties since the causes that they champion in general elections, such as the creation of an Islamic state and the imposition of sharia law, have never been popular at the ballot box.

Yet, Indonesian society has been veering away from the moderate version of Islam, toward more conservatism, with increasing traits of intolerance. Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah, two mass-based organizations that have kept Muslims in Indonesia moderate and tolerant, are losing influence as they too are caught in internal struggles between conservative and liberal/progressive forces.

Islamism could just be around the corner in Indonesia.

What Egypt teaches us is that we have to work even harder to make democracy truly protect the freedoms and rights of every citizen. The three democratic elections, and a fourth one next year, will not be enough to guarantee that Indonesia'€™s democracy, and the freedom and prosperity that it has provided, will be everlasting.

The enemies of democracy and freedom are always lurking somewhere, waiting for their chance to seize power. We are giving them the pretext to do so if we fail to address problems like the breakdown of law and order, the failure of the state in protecting minorities, and rising intolerance. You could throw corruption and other vices that Indonesia still has to deal with into the pot.

Egypt dashed the early hopes and optimism that democracy had finally come to the Arab world. The turmoil there and in Libya, Tunisia and Syria vindicates those who argue that Islam and democracy are in compatible. Even Turkey, which with Indonesia is considered as a model of democracy for Muslim-majority nations, is experiencing problems after 10 years of President Recept Tayyip Erdogan.

When it comes to democracy, Indonesia may be proving to be the exception to the rule among Muslim-majority nations, but only barely. Egypt is an important case study.