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RI will be the first to feel the heat
A recent study by researchers at the University of Hawaii have forecast that cities around the world will experience record-breaking average temperatures, or a âclimate departureâ, as early as 2020, starting with Indonesiaâs north-east city of Manokwari, West Papua
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recent study by researchers at the University of Hawaii have forecast that cities around the world will experience record-breaking average temperatures, or a 'climate departure', as early as 2020, starting with Indonesia's north-east city of Manokwari, West Papua.
Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, will follow suit in 2029, while Mumbai, India, will feel the heat in 2034 and Reykjavik, Iceland, will be last affected in 2066, according to the study.
The forecast assumes the 'business-as-usual' scenario: if countries do not reach a breakthrough in reducing carbon emissions now.
Titled 'The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability', the study gathered data from the projections of 39 computer models developed independently by 21 climate centers in 12 different countries, which analyze air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and the acidity of the oceans.
Camilo Mora, lead author of the study and a geographer at the University of Hawaii, said that from the data compiled, areas in the tropics will undergo change earlier than others.
'Change will be coming soon,' Mora told The Jakarta Post in a telephone interview recently.
The study revealed that on average, the global point of climate departure will be reached as soon as 2047.
Also, the study noted that change in average temperature can harm biodiversity in lower latitudes because tropical plants and animals are suited only to small variations in climate temperatures.
'Small but rapid climate change in the tropics will affect biodiversity globally, and will not only occur as a result of changes at the poles,' Mora said.
The research noted the importance of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions as the changing climate may drive some species to extinction, threaten food supplies and spread disease.
Mora noted however that previous studies, although based on different metrics, had reached similar conclusions about the prompt emergence of unprecedented climate temperatures.
'The main finding was that climate change is happening and will reach levels of significant concern very soon,' he said.
According to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Jakarta's temperature currently averages between 24 and 31 degrees, while temperatures in Manokwari range between 23 and 33 degrees.
Greenpeace says that Indonesia has at least 20 percent of the world's total biodiversity and is home to more than 30,000 recorded species of plant and more than 3,000 mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians.
Approximately 10 percent of the world's rainforests are located in Indonesia, and Indonesia's seas are among the most diverse coastal and marine habitats. (asw)
