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Presidential candidate a determining factor
Waves of support: Thousands of Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) supporters attend a campaign rally recently at the Tegallega soccer field in Bandung, West Java
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Waves of support: Thousands of Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) supporters attend a campaign rally recently at the Tegallega soccer field in Bandung, West Java. PKS has targeted to be among the top three parties in the April 9 legislative election. (JP/Arya Dipa) (PKS) supporters attend a campaign rally recently at the Tegallega soccer field in Bandung, West Java. PKS has targeted to be among the top three parties in the April 9 legislative election. (JP/Arya Dipa)
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span class="inline inline-none">Waves of support: Thousands of Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) supporters attend a campaign rally recently at the Tegallega soccer field in Bandung, West Java. PKS has targeted to be among the top three parties in the April 9 legislative election. (JP/Arya Dipa)
A political observer at Padjadjaran University, Firman Manan, has his own analysis of political mapping in West Java. According to him, the majority of voters in the province are not long-term supporters of particular parties.
'Local people's level of 'identification' with political parties is very low. They are a floating mass,' Firman, who has a master's in political science from Ohio University in Athens, the US, said.
He said this was seen from the 'variety' of incumbent regents and mayors across the province. Of the 26 regencies and municipalities, the Golkar Party has produced the most local leaders, with its members heading up eight regions; the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in second place with five; the United Development Party (PPP) in third place with four, while the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) also has four elected members, one of whom is the West Java governor.
The Democratic Party, the winner at the national level in the 2009 election, only has three members elected as regents and a mayor in West Java, while the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Gerindra Party and the Crescent Start Party (PBB) have one each.
'Golkar, because of its long history in national politics, has a number of influential local figures, which is crucial for the general election,' Firman said, citing former Indramayu regent Irianto MS Syafiuddin as an example.
As the locals did not have party identities or long-standing loyalties to certain parties, he said, nominating their presidential candidates early would help parties to win votes in West Java.
Therefore, he added, the PDI-P's strategy to name Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo as a presidential candidate before the legislative election was a smart move to attract a significant number of votes on April 9.
'We can also see that the PDI-P has a strong support base in West Java. Certainly, the party has emerged within the top three in the last few elections,' Firman said.
He predicted that the battle of influence for the upcoming general election in the province would be fought between Jokowi and Gerindra chief patron Prabowo Subianto.
'People are becoming bored with political parties. Their focus has shifted to [presidential] nominees,' he said, adding that Prabowo had strong support from farmers and fishermen.
Pulihono, deputy secretary of Golkar's West Java chapter, said he had no objection a party nominating its presidential candidate to help boost its chances in the legislative election. However, he added that the public should be careful not to confuse the difference between electing a presidential candidate and a legislative candidate.
'Success in the legislative election will depend on the performances of each legislative candidate,' he said.
Golkar, according to Pulihono, had placed well-qualified legislative candidates in all electoral districts across the province. 'We are, therefore, optimistic that we can get more than 28 percent of votes in West Java. We have a clear market here,' he said.
Commenting on West Java Governor Ahmad Heryawan, who has been touted as a potential presidential candidate for the PKS, Firman said Heryawan's chances in the presidential election were small.
'The [PKS] targets urban Muslim voters and young voters. Meanwhile, traditional voters in West Java are santri [Islamic boarding school students] who are still strongly influenced by their kyai [preachers],' he said.
Zaini Shofari, deputy secretary of the PPP's West Java chapter, said his party was also aiming to attract Muslim voters, given the province's high number of pesantren (Islamic boarding schools) and mosques.
'Our legislative candidates have, therefore, organized gatherings at such places (pesantren and mosques],' he said.
He added that the PPP's candidates had been tasked with informing people about the party's mission statement and programs.
'Transparency is important for the public. Therefore, our legislative candidates also promote our party's programs, such as the social security program and the use of recess allowances by our legislators,' he said, adding that he was optimistic that the PPP candidates for West Java would go on to win dozens of seats in the House of Representatives.
