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inally, President Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo '€” who has the big ambition of turning Indonesia into a maritime power '€” has appointed Retno LP Marsudi as his chief diplomat. The immediate and biggest litmus test for both Jokowi and Retno will be the South China Sea (SCS) issue, especially at the APEC and ASEAN summits in Beijing and Nyapidaw next month.

In just a few weeks'€™ time, these two leaders must show to the world, as well as their ASEAN peers, that Indonesia is the real leader of ASEAN and has the capability to manage potential conflict and unite ASEAN to maintain regional peace.

Both claimant and non-claimant countries, including Indonesia, have been strengthening their military capabilities in the South China Sea.

People in several Asian countries, especially Southeast Asian states, are increasingly worried about the latest tensions between China and ASEAN claimant countries, according to a global survey conducted in 44 countries by the Pew Research Center from the US.

Surprisingly, 62 percent of the Chinese respondents worried that territorial disputes between China and its neighbors could lead to a military conflict.

'€œThis year, in all 11 Asian nations polled, roughly half or more say they are concerned that territorial disputes between China and its neighbors will lead to a military conflict,'€ the Pew survey found.

According to the Pew study, Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines consider China as the greatest threat, while Malaysia, Pakistan and, of course, China see the sole superpower, the US, as their biggest threat. Most Indonesian respondents said the US was their biggest partner. Bangladesh, India and Thailand also expressed a similar opinion. But Indonesians consider the US their biggest threat too.

On the SCS dispute issue, Indonesia clearly states it is not a claimant country and wants the issue solved peacefully among claimant countries. Jakarta also wants a legally binding code of conduct for all parties in the SCS dispute to avoid tensions turning into armed conflict.

'€œWe are not a claimant in a dispute. But we will be affected should conflict break out in the South China Sea over interpretations of the so-called nine-dash line on Chinese maps laying claim to about 90 percent of that sea'€™s 3.5 million square kilometers,'€ Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Moeldoko said in an article published in the Wall Street Journal Asia.

China included a part of the oil and gas-rich Natuna Islands, which are part of Riau province, within China'€™s nine-dash line marking its claim in the SCS. The nine-dash line is not acceptable to Indonesia.

In an effort to protect its territory, Indonesia decided to strengthen its forces on Natuna. Indonesia announced that it would deploy an F16 fighter jet squadron to Pekanbaru, Riau Islands, and place an Apache helicopter squadron near the South China Sea.

Recently, Beijing lashed out at its adversaries, like the US, India and Japan, on SCS. China declared that outside powers did not have any role in resolving the SCS issue, sending a message to Indonesia, which for years has positioned itself as an honest broker between Beijing and other claimants.

'€œ [...] the dispute in the South China Sea should be resolved by countries directly concerned through negotiations and consultations. No third party should be involved in this,'€ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told media in Beijing. Clearly China signaled there would not be any mediatory role for Indonesia as Jakarta was not a claimant country. China also slammed the new security guidelines issued by the US and Japan and alleged that both treated China as an enemy.

Yet China'€™s words do not necessarily match its actions. While China agreed to the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC), under which no country should be involved in provocative and unilateral actions, it deployed a giant oil rig in Vietnamese waters claiming it as its own and used force against Vietnamese patrol boats. China also built a runway and expanded the harbor on the disputed Woody Island, known as Phu Lam in Vietnamese and Yongxing in Chinese, recently.

Fed up with China'€™s encroachment into the area claimed by the Philippines, and endless talks, Manila went to the international court of arbitration.

China claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea area. Yet China says it is ready to negotiate with other claimants on a bilateral basis only. But the Philippines has a valid point. It says that six countries have overlapping claims over SCS, the resolution of which will have global implications. Therefore it should be discussed at the regional level and international level.

During the last ASEAN meeting in Myanmar, the Philippines proposed a three-action plan, which calls for a moratorium on activities that could escalate tensions, speedy conclusion of a code of conduct in the SCS and urges disputes be resolved through arbitration under international law.

The proposal to freeze all perceived provocative acts was well received by Indonesia, Vietnam, the US and many other countries, but China outright rejected the Manila plan.

'€œChina is ready to listen to well-intended proposals on the South China Sea from all parties. But these proposals should be objective, fair and constructive, rather than contributing to new problems or driven by ulterior motives,'€ Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said.

The decades-long dispute not only threatens Indonesia'€™s sovereignty but also ASEAN security and unity. Indonesia wants to be an honest broker but Beijing does not want any third party involved in the resolution of the imbroglio. What can Indonesia can do under the new Jokowi administration?

As ASEAN'€™s founder and de-facto leader, Indonesia must unite all 10 members to forge a common perception on the SCS dispute, bringing together all four claimants on one platform as a first step. If ASEAN is not united, outside powers will dominate in its own backyard.

The SCS dispute could remain an arena of antagonism for many decades to come. Indonesia needs to prevent conflict and manage the situation through dialogue among conflicting parties. Indonesia must work hard to unite ASEAN members and continue to convince all the parties to sign a legally binding code of conduct.
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