The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicted on Thursday that the intensity of El Niño could strengthen in the next four months and is likely to give rise to a prolonged dry season.

Head of the BMKG Andi Eka Sakya said that based on the agency'€™s predictions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index would increase from 1.6 in June to 2.2 in December.

El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean causing a significant reduction in Indonesian rainfall.

'€œThis condition could potentially lead to a prolonged dry spell until the end of this year,'€ Andi said during a press briefing at his office on Thursday in Jakarta.

The BMKG also predicted that provinces to be hardest hit by El Niño were South Sumatra, Lampung, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan and South Sulawesi.

'€œWest and East Nusa Tenggara entered the dry season in March and would continue to experience dry conditions until November of this year,'€ Andi said.

The dry spell in Java is expected to last until October.

Besides that, the El Niño phenomenon could delay the start of the rainy season in some provinces.

'€œNormally the dry season would end in October, but this year the rainy season will begin in most of Indonesia'€™s provinces in November or December due to El Niño effects,'€ Andi said.

Data from the BMKG shows that Java, Bali, South Sulawesi and East and West Nusa Tenggara will get the lowest amount of rainfall in August.

'€œThese provinces will only get 100 millimeters of rainfall a month,'€ he said.

In 1997 and 1998 Indonesia experienced a prolonged drought induced by the strongest-ever recorded El Niño, which triggered widespread fires.

The greatest damage caused by forest and land fires in Indonesia occurred in 1997, when fires wiped out millions of hectares of forest and plantation areas and caused losses estimated at US$2.45 billion.

Andi said on Thursday that the El Niño effects would cause massive harvest failure and could potentially increase the intensity of forest fires.

A number of regions have experienced harvest failure from prolonged drought in recent weeks.

Some 6,578 hectares of paddy fields have experienced crop failure in Central Java, while the local Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD) in Jambi has declared emergency standby status on Monday after the province experienced severe drought in 11 of its regencies.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said on Tuesday that 25,000 hectares of crop fields across the nation have experienced harvest failure due to the El Niño effect.

Meanwhile, the government has prepared emergency funds to anticipate the negative impacts.

'€œWe will provide some additional funds if needed,'€ Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said on Thursday as quoted by kompas.com. (ind)

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